Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (53145)	1/10/2014 2:49:35 PM
From: Bart Hoenes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78609

Thanks for sharing this. I've been grappling with my under performance and how to correct this, so let me share too. My performance from last year was 25.5%. Obviously below the S&P return last year, which I had as 29% (you had as 32.4%). So I've been thinking about ETFs, managed funds and how to boost portfolio performance. I wanted to mention this and see what ideas others might have on it. I've hoped that I could spot stocks that will exceed the market. I seem to be better at this in lackluster markets than I do in a bull like we had last year. It seems that stocks I thought offered value didn't move with the market and my coverage didn't include market sectors where returns were outsized last year. For instance the S&P (not the S&P 500) Biotech segment returned 49% last year. In particular in a market that is rising across the board, but rising unequally, it's difficult to be in the right place with individual stocks. In my case just a S&P 500 ETF would not have been de-worse-ification, since it did a few % points more. And if I had been 1/2 s&p 500, 1/4 dow, 1/4 small cap I would really have been happy. The one year return (1 year not 2013 return) for these are 32% (SPY), 29% (DIA), 145% (TNA) which would have pushed the portfolio return up to near 60%. This shows you how important asset allocation is. What if I had done 1/2 s&p 500, 1/4 biotech, 1/4 small cap because I identified these as good momentum sectors. 32% (SPY), 65% (IBB or BBH), 145% (TNA) - over return near 69%. Of course it's just a case in point - maybe I'd pick TNA this year and it's return will be crappy and reduce the overall return. But I'm just wondering to myself whether this isn't a strategy to use in a strong market ...

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (53145)	7/16/2014 2:37:51 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78609

Just a note for the future: Fido "performance" tab is also buggy. It shows a negative return for one of my accounts for a month when there was no negative return. It seems to be confused by the foreign stock sale and currency conversion - it shows phantom deposit that did not happen. So another caveat of posting performance figures based on "reliable" sources.

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (53145)	1/1/2015 12:07:10 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	1 Recommendation Recommended By Spekulatius Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78609

Preliminary 2014 results: Results are preliminary, since Quicken has not updated some of the 12/31 trades and distributions. These should not be large enough to affect much. Also Fidelity does not have their calculation of yearly results yet and won't have them for couple weeks at least. Other caveats: rates are from Quicken/IRR which I still believe is buggy/not reliable. Couple positions are wide spread micro caps that trade on appointment, so their prices are sometimes misprinted and therefore misaccounted. Couple positions are foreign stocks that may have incorrect final prices. Some results include 401(k) accounts where I cannot invest into my selection of stocks and ESPP accounts where return accounting by Quicken is suspect. So reader beware. Executive summary: 8.7% return which underperformed market. I am selling my investment portfolios and winding down active investing. Longer version: Total IRR across all accounts is 8.05%. After removing ESPP and 401(k) accounts, the return is 8.7%. Both of these undeperformed market a lot (benchmarking against SP500 13.7% return). These returns are even worse considering that BRK stock return was 28% and Fairfax return was 31%. Both of these were positions in my portfolios. Even considering ~16% cash position and ~16% fixed income position, the results are bad. The fact that other active managers did not do well this year is of little solace. As an aside 401(k) portfolios underperformed SP500 because of: 30%+ bond fund allocation, 30%+ international allocation (VTIAX and FDIKX are both negative for year) and some small cap allocation. So my plan is to liquidate my investing portfolios in orderly fashion and convert to mostly passive investing. I have some concern that funds that I passively allocated performed worse than my active investments last year. However, there are two solutions to this: 1. Passively invest in BRK/FRFHF/etc. mix. 2. Longer term the non-ideal allocation might even out. If people express interest, I might post details as the transition occurs. I have not decided yet if I will continue participation in stock forums and how much. It was fun until it lasted. Thanks to all for ideas, feedback and discussions. Good luck with your investments. P.S. Together with Paul Senior's investment in AMZN, perhaps I should call this a top in the market. ;) :P