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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Penick who wrote (41933)	12/10/1997 10:53:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Here's my strategy I look for when Intel shows strength for a few days or punches through its short term high. Then I wait for the momentum to decline and short it. In the reverse direction I cover on any move more than 2 1/2 points below the short. My bias now is toward covering as it makes a lower trading range. What could drive it lower: short term -1- A surprise preannounce along the lines of ORCL. -2- A spread in the banking crisis in Asia that reaches the West via announcements of bad loans from US banks to Korea etc. -3- The Fed gives us a surprise. long term -1- The slowdown in the world economy -2- An asset value correction in the high flying techs to compensate for the slowdown. A return to P/E's of the lower growth rate era. Yes some of you longs have owned Intel long enough to remember that. -3- The end of the business cycle What could drive it higher: short term -1- People buying Intel now looking to get out during the Jan effect. -2- People buying Intel because they see it as a long term value play amongst the "depressed" techs. -3- people buying Intel because they think it will produce better earnings than everyone expects or at least better than the other techs. (the MSFT effect) long term -1- Japan buys up the 500 billion in bad loans in its banking system, sell off the underlying assets, and re-capitalizes its banking system. CLinton offers to float Korean Brady bonds and gets it past the Republicans (he bribes Kim Il Junior to attack?). Alan Greenspan takes the pledge never to raise interest rates. American consumers stop going into debt because everyone gets a non inflationary raiseraise. -2- The economic expansion never ends. The government decides to embrace socialism and build the long awaited Internet fibre pipe to the home as a national policy priority. -3- MSFT finally comes out with a piece of computer software needing Merced hardware to rival the invention of the internal combustion engine it its usefulness to Johnny Sixpack. So short term maybe it will test the low 70's and head back up on the Jan effect to the low 80's. But long term you have to get out of the stock unless you plan to become Rip Van Winkle. Because ultimately its headed to the low 60's.