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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joey Smith who wrote (6753)	12/11/1997 12:12:00 AM
From: Marc Newman	Respond to of 213173

There is nothing in that SEC filing that indicates that profits are out of the question. There is nothing in that SEC filing that was a surprise except for the additional $30 million charge. I am making a list of everything I know about this current quarter. It includes what statistics I have, what we know about the trends in the marketplace and in the Apple eco-system, and some anecdotal evidence. Each "factoid" that I have is only a few lines, yet I'm already nearing page three. At some point I'll post it. Here's something to chew on, from the News.Com article. <<Matt Sargent, a consultant with Computer Intelligence, reported that Apple's sales in the dealer channel have recovered from a low of 2.8 percent in July to 5.4 percent in October. The surge can partially be attributed to the decline in clones.>> Now, doesn't that indicate to you that sales were better in October than they were in July? Quite a bit better. And that clones were already declining sharply by October. Therefore, think how low the clone sales must be by now. Now, if October was better than July, and November is most likely better than August due to the G3s, and December should be better than September due to Christmas, why should we be worried? Why can't we expect at least $1.7 billion and a small profit? The fact that all the articles, including MacWeek, are full of doom and gloom, make my contrarian ears perk up. It feels like July in that respect too. <big wolfish grin> I feel we are a point (at most) from the lows in AAPL. And that we'll have a quick recovery by the end of the month. We should be on the lookout for an earnings warning, of course. All bets are off it that happens. Marc