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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Defrocked who wrote (11261)	12/11/1997 7:16:00 AM
From: bearshark	Respond to of 94695

Defrocked: Of what I have seen so far, S. Korea seems to be in the worst shape. However, there is plenty of mess to go around. And I agree with you that this will take time to sort out. My biggest concern is the devaluation in currencies and their effect on the U. S. economy. But there is plenty more to worry about. The Fed can do whatever it wants. The only thing that matters is how the market participants perceive it. And the timing of the move is important. I have projected the DJI from 8000 using the bear market of 1973-1974 and got a bottom somewhere in the 4000s. I think I posted that in September on this thread. I also posted an analysis of a DJI valuation based on dividend return a while back. That valuation shows the DJI, based on historical returns, should be in the 3000s to the 4000s. I can project anywhere from 1800 to about 4500 in the DJI for the next bear market--which may be just around the new year. I still wait for a signal in the DJI for a bear market but that could happen in a couple of days of trading. Based on my analysis, there are already industries and individual stocks in bear markets. For that matter, the NASDAQ may be in a bear market--I will analyze it this weekend. Tommaso's and Joan's post from Tuesday is consistent with my perception of the markets. They appear to be slowly rotting from the inside out. When enough is eaten away, the facade will collapse.