To: Derrick Lim Kok Fang who wrote (6930 ) 12/11/1997 1:24:00 AM From: Douglas V. Fant Respond to of 13925
Derrick, Just back from three days in a chemical plant- boy each time I leave town the markets go haywire- guess I'd better stick around this Thread! Thanks for your great post- you raise a number of important points- first that Sim Wong Hoo is attempting to position CREAF so that CREAF can set multimedia standards. That can do a a whole lot to guarantee margins moving into the future similar to Intel. Second now I wonder if one of our "industry wowing partnerships" will not be a true partnership, but some sort of commitment between Intel or Microsoft w/CREAF to set such standards. Hmmm..... Third, the Ensoniq deal since it is for cash is what legally would be consideed a "true merger" of companies. So once the merger is acomplished (probably by 2d quarter 1998), then CREAF/Ensoniq will begin reporting merged cashflows, balance sheets,etc. We need to ascertain Ensoniq's cash flow from 1997, but adding Ensoniq's business to CREAF's in 1998 makes me more comfortable that CREAF will achieve earnings estimates even with a slowdown.. Fourth, there is a subtle side to the Ensoniq deal. Obviously Ensoniq sells to a number of OEM's. But now with Ensoniq's contacts with OEM's it will be that much easier for CREAF through these contacts to offer complete multimedia packages to OEM's. Since OEM's (actually any manufacturing facility) likes sole source supplier relationships, that makes more likely the possibility that CREAF can sell OEM's to let CREAF handle the "total package" of multimedia add-ons or products- very smart. Fifth, that the CEO would say that revenue growth will slow but that we will likely meet our estimates suggests that CREAF will benefit from the devaluation of the Korean Won- I believe that we established that CREAF has a healthy portion of its mnaufacturing conducted in (South) Korea. (I wonder how much longer we will need to put the word "South" before the word "Korea"!!). Sixth - controlling the Voodoo2 Trademark is very important, if that is correct. Remember from the Comdex Announcement that Graphics Blasters with single or tandem Voodoo2 Chipsets will stream "late in the first quarter 98". Finally I am beginning to believe that we are in a tech bear market that started in late September. If so then since bear markets last about 6-9 months usually, then my guess like yours is that we will "rattle around" in the $19-22/share range until late March, just before the April 98 earnings release since at that point the impact of PC-DVD will be clearer and Graphics Blaster w/ Voodoo2 will have streamed. Potential unexpected upside- more acquisitions,announcements of course. Sim's timing on acquisitions is excellent, to buy during downturns and not to pay inflated prices..... Sincerely, Doug F.