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Strategies & Market Trends : Dino's Bar & Grill -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Goose94 who wrote (4498)1/22/2014 1:52:20 PM
From: Goose94Respond to of 203096
 
Gearing up for a uranium recovery with Japan's uranium surplus unwinding?

The past weeks continued to show improving sentiment for uranium. The spot price has been creeping up off a base set last summer to ~US$36/lb currently. Uranium Participation Corp. (UPC), the world's only physical uranium fund, secured a $50 million bought deal to fund additional uranium purchases. By mid-day, the deal was fully subscribed. Since early November, UPC has been trading at a consistent premium to its net asset value, implying higher future uranium prices. Shares in major producers such as Cameco and large explorers such as Denison have pushed through key technical supports - both up ~40% since October lows - with advanced juniors like U3O8 Corp. now also breaking out on the upside.

With the growing number of uranium supply cutbacks and disruptions since mid-2011, shrinking inventories held by global utilities and increasing demand spurred by new reactor builds - these signs suggest uranium is gearing up for a recovery. And analysts estimate the first Japanese reactors to restart by mid-2014 - this should see Japan starting to drawing down its stockpile, which has been the main reason for weak uranium prices over the last couple of years. The market appears on the cusp of a supply squeeze.

Therefore, the market should be moving towards a global supply deficit around the end of 2014. Supply risk is highlighted by the latest temporary shutdowns of several of the world's largest mines (Ranger in Australia and two Areva mines in Niger) - that's over 1Mlb per month offline.

Global utilities have also let their strategic inventories fall to 6-year lows. In 2013, utilities only bought 20Mlb vs. an average of 160Mlb over the last decade. So when the inevitable supply squeeze emerges, utilities with insufficient uranium inventory may need to accelerate buying irrespective of the price.

On the demand side, new reactors continue to go online. Since April 2013, China connected 5 new reactors to the grid (Ningde 1 & 2, Hongyanhe 1 & 2 and Yangjiang1) and double that number is in progress to go into operation in 2014. China has doubled its uranium imports to ~35Mlb per year post Fukushima - clearly stocking up to fuel its growing nuclear fleet. And as Toll Cross Securities has suggested, China could be quietly buying some of Japan's surplus uranium.

Projections indicate a sustained and dramatic deficit in supply starting around 2017-2018, by which time we expect our Argentine deposit could be in production, which would be perfect timing to feed into this gaping supply shortfall.