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Technology Stocks : Applied Magnetics Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Earl who wrote (10994)	12/11/1997 1:50:00 AM
From: Jonathan Bird	Respond to of 12298

I look at my list. I look at APM. I look at the shorts. I scratch my head. I do more research. What is wrong with shorting a stock that is weaker player, making new 52 week lows, in a secter in crisis? You really believe there something fundementally unsound about this strategy? I personally feel much safer shorting a company already on its way down, then I do trying to time the apex on a high flyer. Besides, APM is a stock that only moves up on news. There is not enough PR or analyst coverage to move it UP without hard earnings numbers. If you want to play it long you only have to be in < 4 months a year. On other hand it's always eager to go down. Jon Bird

To: Don Earl who wrote (10994)	12/11/1997 2:00:00 AM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12298

Well, if we weren't bucking a negative market, this would be easier. Thought you all would be interested in this: TOKYO, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Salomon Brothers said on Thursday it had downgraded TDK Corp (NYSE:TDK - news; 6762.T) to an M rating from its previous O. Salomon analyst Koichiro Chiwata attributed the downgrade to the negative impact excessive stocks of hard disk drives (HDD) and sharp price falls in the United States were expected to have on drive makers. The decision also reflected an expected oversupply in magneto-resistive heads in 1998 and worries over future prices of these components, Chiwata said. The quantum cc revealed that quantums MKE joint venture produces about 20% of their MR head requirements (at a loss) internally.

To: Don Earl who wrote (10994)	12/11/1997 3:18:00 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12298

The "Anals" have made 15% since Monday. Probably another 5-10% tomorrow. Meanwhile, you have lost the same percentage. The anals are 30% ahead of you (at least) in three days. You might want to more carefully consider the names you use to describe a person or persons who disagree with you, especially if they happen to be making money at the same time you are losing money. SI comprises a very small piece of the investing community, so suggesting any one person could significantly influence the price of a stock like APM is a bit of a stretch. Regards Ken

To: Don Earl who wrote (10994)	12/11/1997 9:54:00 AM
From: Jadrew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12298

When to Short ? Don, the activity on this thread seems to picking up. Must mean either A) The stock has risen a lot or B) The stock has fallen a lot. Okay, given we know which one it is, what should an investor do now ? Seems everybody is dumping on this stock (sector). The analysts (gee, lets see what their consensus was 6 months ago), anybody who bought it at a higher price (I assume especially the institutions) and the shorters (who obviously wish to profit from a further fall in price). So when shouldn't somebody short a stock ? 1) When a stock is at a 52 week low AND short term survival (liquidity) is not in question. APM has substantial cash resources ($170 million ?) 2) When a company can meet its capex without going to market into the forseeable future (no dilution potential). 3) The company can adjust to a changing technology (subjective). 4) The market for the product isn't falling (obsolete) (are people still buying pc's with hard drives ?). 5) When the "hype" is totally negative, and a lot of shorts are out there. I'm not saying this is a sure thing (this is a 9-12 month product life cycle technology), I just don't believe the rewards in shorting are worth the risks at this price ($13) and the company's cash position.