To: Bilow who wrote (765675 ) 1/25/2014 12:36:09 PM From: Wharf Rat Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1574611 Temperatures have been going up that long, too. What a coincidence. Takes a few years to measure changes in salinity, too.ipcc.ch We're now in the phase of our great experiment where we are observing physical changes caused by temperature changes. They weren't predicting a trend. They were presenting one explanation for the existing trend, and, that if they were correct, it will continue for a while. Years later, " Yes, that" Judith Curry co-authored a paper which came to the same conclusion. rabett.blogspot.com Here's some of what Manabe said... “In response to the increase in greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, the positive temperature anomaly initially appears in the well-mixed surface layer of the ocean called the “mixed layer”. Gradually, the anomaly spreads from the mixed-layer to the deeper layers of the ocean, thereby increasing the effective heat capacity of the oceans. The increase of effective heat capacity, in turn, results in the reduction of the rate of increase in surface temperature, reducing and delaying the warming as shown by Hoffert et al (1980) and Hansen et al. (1984).” "Schneider and Thompson (1981) shows that the time-dependent response of zonal mean surface temperature differs significantly from its equilibrium response particularly in those latitude belts, where the fraction of ocean-covered area is relatively large. Based upon the study, they conjectured that the response in the Southern Hemisphere should be delayed as compared to that in the Northern Hemisphere because of the inter-hemisphere difference in the fraction of the area covered by the oceans.” "Bryan et al (1988) found that the increase in surface temperature is very small in the Circumpolar Ocean of the Southern Hemisphere in contrast to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere where the increase is relatively large.” "However, the detailed analysis of the numerical experiment reveals that the absence of substantial surface warming in the Circumpolar Ocean is attributable not only to the large fraction of the area covered by the oceans but also to the deep penetration of positive temperature anomaly into the oceans.”