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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (11358)	12/11/1997 7:14:00 AM
From: Jess Beltz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

Asia took a pretty bad pounding today in the financial markets. I'll let you guys survey the damage to the indices over on Yahoo. Here are some of the more interesting anecdotes from today: In Hong Kong, two parcels of government land went up for auction today and went for considerably less than anticipated, prompting some analysts to speculate that real estate prices in the territory could easily fall another 25%. In S. Korea, the government has circuit breakers in place that limit the amount the currency, the won, can fall in a single day to (I believe) 10% of its opening value. It took something like 4 minutes today. The government pleaded with the IMF to accelerate the arrival of bail-out cash. I believe another 4 banks folded today as well. The economy there is really bleak. As far as Asia and Wall Street are concerned, I have no idea who is the tail and who the dog when it comes to slamming stock prices with bad news. Maybe its a two tailed dog with no head (certainly no brains.) jess

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (11358)	12/11/1997 5:57:00 PM
From: sepku	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

-- VERY OFF TOPIC! -- (apologies to the CYMI thread) >>>Style, Ascend is trading up but without the takeover rumors, it would have lost a lot more ground just like Cisco and 3Com. Is there (in you opinion) any truth to the rumors?<<< I would refer you to the ASND thread, where many of us have been discussing this in great detail, however I realize the number of posts to scroll through is enormous -- plus a lot of nonsense was posted concerning a certain idiot. You might want to take a glace at the posts under my profile...about 95% of them are ASND. In answer to your question, no I don't believe in the rumors...I really pay little attention to rumor-mongering in the first place. The rumor of a takeover by LU was raised from the dead for the 3rd time last week. Also, based on their restriction of pooling-of-interests until 10/98 and their recent 3 networking aquisitions: Octel, Livingston, and Prominet -- I just don't see it as very likely. I do feel that ASND will not remain an independent entity throughout the next year, based on competitive and strategic reasons. They have an impressive RA/FR/ATM portfolio, and are the leader in 2 of those segments, however they will probably need to join forces with another larger player as CSCO continues to push hard into ASND's markets aggressively -- CSCO is becoming so large it is really making it difficult for COMS and ASND to compete, let alone all the other players. I do feel it is a possibility that NT is interested in ASND, especially in light of the aquisitions its rival LU has been making in the networking sector. Notice that NT has been conspicuously passive in the aquisition dept. despite their admitted desire to move into the networking sector. My thoughts on this matter: Message 2933696 >>>The reports coming out of the conference last month were very bleak, and it seemed (barring a takeover) that the way back for ASND would be long and slow.<<< Actually the first conference was very bullish. The new CFO Ashby stated he expected ASND to meet Q4 #'s, the MAX TNT software problems were fixed, the first month of the new Q was strong, Europe sales picking up, domestic sales very strong, Q-to-Q eps growth of 10% can be expected (which computes to over 40% growth in '98). And that was only 1 month into the Q. There was just another conferend with DMG Thurs last week. Management emphasized again that they are comfortable with Q4 estimates and are well on track. The first 2 months were strong, and 1998 looks even brighter (they raised their expectation of '98 eps). CSCC sales are growing quickly in FR and ATM...making up for the slack in ASND's RA. The initial rally by ASND began immediately following that conference...the rumor was hatched by the media shortly after. Therefore, it's my belief that the buying was mostly based on ASND's own merits. Over 40 mil shares changed hands in 2 days, or well over $1.2 billion. There was heavy institutional activity based on block trades going through at the ASK of over 20K in size. In the latter stages of the 2 day rally, the rumor no doubt helped fuel it in the latter stages with retail speculation. The DMG conference was not widely known about...I believe the media was looking for an explanation of the powerful rally, and finding none they put their ear to the trading floor (aka Maria) and once again heard the popular LU rumor. Back to improving outlook, ASND has just announced the addition of several new products to its portfolio, and many more for Q1 98. The 56K standard has been agreed upon with final signing by Feb 6. I believe the company will beat Q4 numbers on Jan 22 and will rebound going into Feb. The pendulum swings to both extremes, and ASND is beaten down...sentiment will change to the upside just as quickly once Q4 is a success and Q3's poor performance is proved to be an anomaly. As a hold for 1998, from the mid-20s I'm confident any investor can confidently just hold and wait for 50 or 100% return over the next 12 months -- and that's based on ASND's own merits, disregarding the possibility of a takeover next year. As for the networking sector in general, check out this excellent article at Data Communications: data.com Style Pts.