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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (182365)	1/30/2014 9:41:40 AM
From: Dennis Roth	1 Recommendation Recommended By LoneClone Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206183

US Independent Refiners We Welcome Strong Beats But Tanker Tracking Could Dampen the Mood 30 January 2014 sendspace.com Bottom Line: So the big three refiners have reported and handsomely beaten consensus. Inside we argue that the new winter seasonality of crude discounts and winter season butane blending could be more important than the old gasoline “driving season” turning the trading seasonality for the equities on its head. There are good things going on at the refiner group – coastal refineries are getting access to cheaper crude, logistics assets are being built and/or monetized, the group should generate a c7% FCF yield (2015) and US crude production keeps growing. However, tanker tracking could dampen the mood. We believe stress in the Gulf is the key to driving crude discounts wider and hence the key to refiner earnings. Yet, (1) crude runs are higher yoy and perhaps more importantly (2) tanker fixtures from the Middle East and West Africa are lower. This is important because today’s tanker fixtures = tomorrow’s imports and the US will need more foreign crude this summer. Reduced tanker loadings show that crude exporters to the US are to some extent rational price maximisers.