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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ryan Bartholomew who wrote (165225)	2/2/2014 1:59:02 PM
From: ggamer	Respond to of 213177

If you don't want to take risk, your best bet would be to buy at or around $200 per share. Anything beyond that you will be taking a risk with a company that has not performed well lately.

To: Ryan Bartholomew who wrote (165225)	2/3/2014 9:55:59 PM
From: slacker711	2 Recommendations Recommended By JP Sullivan Stock Puppy Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213177

Given that they're at a clip of about $40/share in earnings now, I'm trying to determine a safe estimate for the next 3-5 years, then use that to calculate my entry point. The current estimates around $43 seem about right for FY2014. I think that the softness in the US will be offset by continued growth in Japan/China as well as the impact of the buyback. I also wouldnt be surprised if Apple starts to press harder on the pricing lever in some markets. FY2015 depends on the launch of a large screen iPhone. They absolutely need this handset to continue to grow iPhone units as the high-end has become a zero sum game. Beyond that, they are going to need significant new product categories or earnings will begin to decline from their FY2015 level. I dont expect anything dramatic, but incremental upgrades to the iPad/iPhone line are not going to be enough to generate earnings/revenue growth. I will need to be convinced about the watch category so I mostly view this as an upside call option. These two things combined lead me to believe that it would be impossible for AAPL to fall below $200/share (barring a crazy lawsuit or a decision to invest heavily and bleed cash) because, in the worst case scenario, they could hunker down and continue to churn out $10 or $15/share in profits by staying focused as described above. Your doomsday scenario makes little sense. There has to be slope down to that $10 to $15 a year in earnings. It isnt going to happen tomorrow. They have about $135 in cash per share if you discount foreign cash by 30% or so....add in the next few years of cash flow and the multiple on $10 to $15 in profits and you are going to get a number well north of $200 a share. That matters if you are also looking at the possible downside risk of any investment in Apple. Slacker