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To: bruwin who wrote (117830)	2/4/2014 1:39:09 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 118717

Well yes, if you can magically buy near the bottom and sell near the top you will convincingly outperform the market. But no simple rule like a stop loss will do that for you - there will be just as many circumstances where it hurts you as helps you. Just look at the Mutual Fund industry - all those funds with top-notch managers - and there is no evidence that those that outperform one year are any more likely to outperform the next. There are a few people out there that can consistently outperform over many years - but they are few and far between. Buffett and SImons are two well-known investors that have convincingly demonstrated skill-based outperformance over decades, but there are not a lot of others out there. (Here on SI, rkrw consistently outperforms in small biotech). Peter

To: bruwin who wrote (117830)	2/4/2014 6:45:06 PM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 118717

So if one followed the lead of the 'old' Warren Buffett and did what he usually did, when the market was "fearful", and invested around the time when the S&P 500 Index was at around, say, 780 in March/April of 2009, one's current compounded Annual Rate of Return would be This theory sounds great, but most people who invest in the market are generally invested to a level of their available capital that suits them. So when the market plunges 50% and people are fearful, where is this magical new capital to come from? In other words, if I have 80% of my savings in the market for years and years, and then the market plunges 50%, where do I get the new capital to "double down"?