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To: puborectalis who wrote (165318)2/4/2014 1:13:40 PM
From: Moonray  Respond to of 213177
 
More: Signs Point to Apple's (AAPL) iWatch Drawing Big Revenue for the Company
February 4, 2014 11:26 AM EST
(Updated - February 4, 2014 12:29 PM EST)

Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iWatch hasn't been announced yet, but that doesn't mean analysts won't take a

crack at what the device might possibly mean for the world's number one consumer electronics and media
company.

UPDATES issued throughout:

Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty commented, Significant investment in communication and sensor technology
including the acquisition of WiFiSlam, Passif Semiconductor, and PrimeSense in just the last year suggests
Apple is looking to extend its platform to a wider array of devices. As a result, we view the new product
category CEO Tim Cook referenced on the F1Q14 earnings call as most likely a wearable product, like an
iWatch. The analyst sees Apple generating revenue around $17.5 billion for the iWatch in its first 12 months,
versus $12 billion for the iPad and $2 billion for the iPhone. The outlook takes into consideration a selling
price of $299 and user base as extensive as the iPads. That assumes no supply chain disruptions,
however. That revenue number falls to $10 to $14 billion if demand isn't able to be met. This translates
into six to 10 points of revenue growth for Apple from iWatch in CY15, the analyst stated.

Key to larger adaptation of the iWatch will be Apple's ability to position the device as a natural
accessory for iOS users, like the iPad, versus a new category, like the iPod or iPhone.

Huberty noted that Apple's latest 10-Q calls for $10.45 billion of CapEx, up from $7.9 billion in fiscal

2013. With single-digit growth numbers now hitting the iPhone and iPad, a large jump in CapEx
could only mean Apple is ramping another category.

o~~~ O




To: puborectalis who wrote (165318)2/4/2014 1:53:00 PM
From: Ryan Bartholomew  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 213177
 
Huberty thinks investors are “muted” in their expectations for wearable tech, but given that each new product category from Apple has grown at a faster clip than the last, she thinks “wearables could contribute up to $17.5 billion of revenue in the first twelve months,” topping the iPad’s growth rate:
That's some wild optimism there! Given that all attempts at wearables have failed so far because they represent an additional device to carry rather than replacing a current one, an iWatch is going to have a tough time succeeding unless it changes that. Consumers are balking at the need to carry their phone *and* wear a watch or glasses that rely upon the phone for core functionality. I don't see how Apple would miniaturize things to the point where the batter and radio would be contained within the watch, thereby eliminating the need for the phone.