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To: Davy Crockett who wrote (117857)	2/6/2014 11:07:30 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 118717

>>Bottoms and tops can be called with reasonable certainty. That's a fantasy - they can certainly be called easily, but only in retrospect. There is not a single published study showing any simple technical analysis works at all in the equity markets. (There are some exceptions using very tight stops that work if you ignore commission costs and bid/ask spreads, and some equivocal studies in the commodities markets). If you look at any particular time period, it's easy to come up with rules that would have worked in retrospect. But that's because there are basically an infinite set of rules that one can come up with. And when you take the rules that work in one period and try to apply them to another, they typically fail. That's not surprising - any simple rule that works would get applied by others and then lose its effectiveness. Now Jim Simons (Renaissance) has some magic sauce that works, but nobody knows what it is. And his employees have been described as being equal or better in quality to those in the best math departments in the world, so there's no reason to assume that any amateurs can compete with them. Peter