To: sense who wrote (3707 ) 2/6/2014 10:15:35 PM From: weatherguru 1 RecommendationRecommended By Hawkmoon
Respond to of 4326 The models refer to incoming sunlight as the solar constant . LOL! But this is just the sun's radiation. The true driver of climate change with the sun is the solar wind. Meteorology is taught from the surface up. The stratosphere is shown as the "cap" to tropospheric weather. However, I eventually learned about potential vorticity. Looking at papers such as Baldwin and Dunkerton's, sciencemag.org , the idea of stratospheric perturbations preceding surface weather changes was fascinating. Piers Corbyn opened my eyes to the connection between the sun and "climate". Why climate in quotes? Weather is 3-7 days. Beyond that, errors become too amplified and typically changes the forecast. So climate in quotes is the lower-frequency variability of weather...ranges from 10-90 days, year-to-year, decade-to-decade, etc. Piers talks about Solar-Action-Lunar-Technique, which I understand to take solar wind along with the position of the moon to influence the jet streams. The jet streams, in a meteorological sense, is a main driver of synoptic weather (highs and lows on weather maps). He opened my eyes to the influence of the jet streams by the solar wind via its interaction with the Earth's magnetic field. It seems very rational to link the upper layers of the atmosphere to surface changes in weather, which is why I brought up the dynamical stuff in the second paragraph. Piers is a free-market guy (keeps his methods of predicting the solar wind pretty secret). He did predict the jet pattern this winter via less active solar wind. He uses a laptop computer to make better predictions of seasonal patterns than multi-billion dollar climate models. Sigh. But as you mentioned, Polaris getting dimmer than brighter? Could it happen to our sun? Why would there be such fluctuations with something powered by fusion? But does the government and insurance companies want accurate seasonal predictions? Hell no. The same question could be posed on energy. We are enslaved to energy, but coal companies are being shut down while abundant, domestic natural gas goes up in price. If it gets colder and colder, there is less energy and more demand. However, we cause global warming and global cooling, so just pay more and shut up :)