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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kurthend who wrote (165507)2/6/2014 6:51:55 PM
From: Ryan Bartholomew  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 213177
 
He is singing the exact same tune (doomsday for Apple) when he bought put options in the $420 range. He just keeps harping about the same thing.
When did I buy $420 puts? I've lost some $ on Apple puts, but made much more. More importantly, I'm not singing a doomsday scenario for Apple. In fact, I've been explicit that the reason I'd like to go long AAPL is that I'm increasingly seeing a very limited downside even *if* everything goes against them.
For Apple to go to $200 would basically mean sales would plummet 50-60% and the whole world no longer wanting to buy Apple products.
??? I just had a nice discussion with Slacker and others that suggested something very different. I think that they could maintain margins and have sales roughly stabilize. Yes, their global market share would continue to fall in this scenario, but sales wouldn't need to collapse.

You don't have to agree, but you're certainly not painting my position accurately. I'm sorry that a different opinion is something that you feel you need to ignore.



To: Kurthend who wrote (165507)2/6/2014 7:11:59 PM
From: slacker7112 Recommendations

Recommended By
pyslent
Ryan Bartholomew

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 213177
 
Personally, I learn quite a bit from people I disagree with. Both from their arguments and from considering my own positions.

As an example, I disagree with Ryan about the doomsday valuation, but it is absolutely a useful exercise for anybody who owns the stock or is considering buying some. Personally, it gives me a range for when I'll think about buying shares. It also makes me think about the risks at the current share price.

Who else on the board is going to force the conversation towards a worst case valuation?

Of course, your mileage may vary. We all have different reasons for our investments and our participation on SI.

Slacker



To: Kurthend who wrote (165507)2/6/2014 8:18:25 PM
From: Heywood406 Recommendations

Recommended By
aaplAnnie
CHRIS LINELL
HerbVic
jeftuxedo
MGV

and 1 more member

  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 213177
 
I started a discussion with him before the amnesty over on the Tankwatch board. It soon became apparent he will just continue working his two favorite pieces of misinformation in an attempt to make his points; declining profits and declining market share.

The rest of us know that Apple's profits continue to increase when the numbers are normalized to take into account the number of weeks in the respective quarters and the amount of deferred revenue for each quarter.

We also know that 25% of Android's market share is so forked that it is actually more of a threat to Android than Apple is, making Android less attractive to developers and less profitable for the Android manufacturers that compete against Apple. We see proof of this in the consistently overwhelming iOS-heavy internet usage statistics that are reported.

There's no point in discussing Apple's future with anyone who continues to hold such misconceptions on Apple's profits and the relative importance of raw market share.