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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (53347)	2/7/2014 10:42:48 AM
From: MCsweet	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78748

GTS, GTS hit my stock screens awhile back as quite cheap, but I've been worried about Puerto Rico. Their finances are a disaster. The company appears to own about $20 million in risky Puerto Rico bonds. Plus a bad Puerto Rico economy doesn't seem like a positive for business. How do you think these Puerto Rico issues will impact GTS going forward? In terms of headline risk, at least the credit downgrade of Puerto Rico is out of the way. MC

To: Spekulatius who wrote (53347)	2/8/2014 3:04:50 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78748

Y - BrooklynInvestor has a post about Y. Overall, I am not very impressed. This reminds me why I skipped Y last time I looked at it. The good news is that it's trading at 0.9 book The bad news: their long term CAGR is only 8-8.4%. This is low. It's ok to opportunistically buy this at 0.9 book expecting reversal to 1.2-1.3 book. But as long term investment, their growth is too low. I am not really interested unless business has 10%, ideally 15% growth. Sure, there are exceptions, but we are talking insurance here, it's not as if this is a high moat business where you could be fine with lower growth because it throws off tons of FCF. (Hmm, I should probably dump the dinky banks on this argument too :))). And this 8-8.4% was done during the huge tailwinds of dropping interest rates, rising bond prices. What are they going achieve now? They aim for 7-10%, but that's just the aim. Also you can get prefs yielding 8%. Why would you go to equity for such return? The only way I see a higher return is market revaluing this at 1.2-1.3 book. Otherwise, you won't get much more than historical rise. Question: On slide 6, it says that Y's debt is rated at Baa2/BBB/bbb+ Isn't this lowish for insurer? Note: Last couple years have been rather brutal on (re)insurers book values. We had cats in 2011-2012 and then bond drop in 2013. I am not sure any of my (re)insurer holdings grew book at 10% in 2013. For some book dropped.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (53347)	2/11/2014 3:35:17 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78748

Swift Energy Co. (SFY) -NYSE - upped current position by 65% w/ buys at $11.74/share Followed you into SFY and upped my shares by 65%. Company has earnings 2/26/2013. There is a big short interest but from several of the reports I have read (specifically KOG), their Bakken production results are proving quite good. CEO bought 10K shares at $14.11/share in 11/2013 so he still is buying at the open market. Maybe during their conference call, they will provide an update on how their Louisiana property sale is going. EKS

To: Spekulatius who wrote (53347)	2/12/2014 8:26:35 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78748

El Paso Pipeline Partners, L.P. (EPB) Our back stop arrived today in the form of Richard Kinder (CEO of EPB). El Paso Pipeline Partners CEO disclosed buying 100K shares at $29.84-30.22 on 2/11, worth ~$3.0 mln I missed my add on Monday when the stock traded at a 3 year low but have been accumulating shares as this one has dropped in price. It looks like that 8% yield magic "value" number triggered Mr. Kender's recent buy. It was not the case w/ BWP as I saw nothing of the parent Lowes and/or Andrew Tisch the co-chair of Loews Corporation making any buys when BWP hit an all time low Monday (a 49% drop in price). It's nice to know we have a back stop buyer in EPB. There must be a lot of value in the name for the CEO to buy at the market price. EKS