To: Skeptic who wrote (7128 ) 12/11/1997 1:31:00 PM From: M. Frank Greiffenstein Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 31646
The Pad-Locked Gate Scenario... One of the most common critiques of y2k investment is that these companies will go out of business on 1/1/00. More generous critics think ot will go until 1/1/01-02. In other words, companies like KEA, DDIM, TPRO and PTUS will just turn off the lights and padlock the gates on some predetermined date. I supposed it makes sense if one holds a simple minded view of the whole thing, and there is nothing inherently wrong with trying to simplfy a complex issue, but sometimes simplifcation jsut distorts the reality. I see a steady stream of annoucements and discussions about the work of these companies after the last line of code is re-written and the last chip replaced. For example, I have now counted four companies that see a natural evolution of their tools and services from y2k work to Euroconverison work. This inlcudes KEA, CRYSF, VIAS and PTUS. This is estimated to be a 100 billion dollar market. PTUS also sees an application to telecommunications industry, writing software that handles longer phone numbers. Then there is systems migration, an area that will go well into the next century. So, I am saying there is not only a failure of imagination, there is a failure to understand American Industry on the part of these critics. Yes, there are companies that have failed to adapt to changes in their core business, but these were companies who did not have any clue to an end being in sight. Every publicly traded y2k company KNOWS the problem will be fixed, they have an advantage in knowing the market is big but temporally finite. I am sure every single one has plans. The plans might not be successful, but that is a separate issue. Hilton Hotels got into gambling because it was a natural extension of the leisure business. I am not a business school grad, but I learned a concept developed by a wharton School professor from the turn of the century: "Ask yourself what business you are in, descirbe it in different terms than you are used to, and you will get the answers to your business problems." TPRO is in the systems integration business and the facotry floor software business, it is NOT in the y2k business. Defining your businss in those terms and the solutions come readily to hand. DocStone