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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (57188)	2/9/2014 10:55:25 PM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218259

DJIA data since 1896 from St. Louis Fed: research.stlouisfed.org

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (57188)	2/10/2014 7:41:19 PM
From: Vitas	2 Recommendations Recommended By 3bar GROUND ZERO™ Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218259

That’s not all, folks! There is the Coppock Curve (or Coppock Guide) so-called Killer Wave. For those of you not acquainted with the Coppock Curve, it is constructed by adding an 11 month rate of change to a 14 month rate of change on the S&P (or any other index), then calculating a 10 month weighted total of that sum. It has been one of the most spectacularly accurate long term buy indicators ever devised. Its last buy signal was given in January 1995. A buy signal is generated when the Coppock Curve turns up from below the zero level. It’s that simple. The beauty of the Curve is that it tends to move above and below zero very smoothly with little or no hesitation. The Coppock Curve was not designed to give sell signals, but an analyst with A.G. Becker, Don Hahn, discovered long ago that if the Coppock Curve turned up by more than 10 points within two months of a bottom above the zero level, it was called a killer wave. Up to now, there had been only three killer wave signals given over the past 35 years. They came in November 1968, September 1972, and July 1987. A double Killer Wave signal has now been given in both February and May 1997. The three prior signals led to three of the largest declines of the past 35 years. The current signal now calls for an equally ominous decline. The timing of the decline is not a pinpoint affair, but as you can see from the dates of prior Killer Wave signals, they preceded the final tops: 1)just days later (December 1968), 2) 3 1/2 months later (January 1972), and 3) one month later (August 1987). Three instances are not, of course, statistically significant but the suggestion from those prior three occasions is that the top should be seen between June and September 1997. The past three Killer Waves preceded declines averaging 34.4%. We believe that would be a minimum type decline expected from the next top. spiritoftruth.org The only four false signals under this guideline were in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001. The Coppock Guide has never been noted for timely sell signals. The reason is that market tops are usually slow, rounding formations in which momentum (and the Coppock) peak up to a year or more ahead of the market. Except, that is, in a few cases... moneyshow.com Chart: moneyshow.com