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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: steve susko who wrote (15471)	12/11/1997 12:16:00 PM
From: Gaston Teran	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

This pullback is deserved and more fundamental than speculation or fear IMO. I think Asian troubles will negatively affect blue-chip coporate earnings. However, it's not going to cause huge losses Oracle style. Basically, I don't know what to expect this afternoon but the drop should stop with a day or two free of earning warnings. The good thing is that we aren't overly overvalued anymore (8100 is a bit too high for me right now). Same with the Nasdaq, it's 80+ drop this week is healthy. As far as techs, Compaq is my favorite right now. I picked up some CPQ and a little BA this morning. Gaston

To: steve susko who wrote (15471)	12/11/1997 2:59:00 PM
From: Robert S. Johnson	Respond to of 50167

To all: I'm not sure what or when tech selloff will stop, but in the big picture I still feel the markets should soon begin to show an 'only game in town' scenario. This scenario is as follows....... I feel the list of popular world-wide investments has been drastically reduced recently, since gold is in the toilet, no reasonable person would send money away to a Japan/Hong Kong/Korean mutual fund, and US Bonds are in the 6% range. So for early 1998, it would appear to me that the US S&P 500 and NASDAQ would be the preferred choice for folks worldwide who have 401K monies or who just a looking for a better-than-bond rate of return. Thanks.

To: steve susko who wrote (15471)	12/11/1997 10:41:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

Steve- 962 did not hold- it was not expected a close below 955 is also a very ominous signal the pattern looks without bringing triple bottom in consideration one of a final end to bull movement if 920 is taken out- I have hedged my self at break of 280 but it is not a perfect one to one SOX contracts are small I last night told my broker to establish a 950 put long for Jan at around 21 and Sold twice the number of 880 Jan's for around 61/4-that gives me a good cover and ample protection- the reason I shorted the puts at 880 were that in case we are unable to break 948 today I may get out with little cost- the premiums will dry very fast on 950's- with 5250$ each contract the cost of protection is exorbitant but when market fails your key support one needs to cover and that darn going short is not rediscovering Eientien thoery of relativity- on SOX I added on to 250 Jans selling 230 Jans 1 to 1 and half- naturally at certain point in time I will leg out of the long side and take the risk of market reversal. I don't expect this 'crisis of confidence rto loom to long- they can parade ASEA every other day but Koreans and Japanses will and are cpable of fixing their economic problems the crisis of cash flow is for Koreans more a crisis of 'self respect' but I think todays WON pressures will bring some semblance of order. I expected far worse action today but I will now look to markets today- I think we may see a test of breaking 962 today and close around 967 area- ASEA was not that bad, somewhere around these levels at SOX 255 or so and SPZ 948 I expect a reversal- it is now clearly a tug of war between absolute destruction people who believe we are into a 150 point correction on SPZ the purists and trend breakers who bwelieve charts are not going to help here- it is crisis brewing out of lack of confidence and will correct once this haning cloud finally is addressed? On the up I am looking at decisive break of 268 and 965 to get out of long leg of my put spread, on the down side I will try to leg out of long puts at 255 on SOX and 948 of SPZ it is here at this point if reversal will come- I will take my chances- but a break of 948, one good sign of impending break is that if you see 945 being visited in a quick typical taking out stop moves with index back up to 948 and above it can be a false break but a second attempt is inevitably an indication of lower close- if this happens we can go down to 930 in no time? Like a hawk we need to trade and follow today's action unfortunately keep an eye on 948 one visit lower to 945 take out stops and a second attempt confirms the trend- I am confident that double top and neckline is not the case it is triple bottom with double top and a trading range- the break from here will be very volatile on any side.