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Technology Stocks : NEXTEL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: P.T.Burnem who wrote (3624)	12/11/1997 12:59:00 PM
From: Frederick Smart	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10227

PTB: Nextel has weathered "increased competition" quite well, thank you. Have you factored in the access revenues?? Have you factored in the eventual unplugging of landline phones in favor of digital wireless? Even at AT&T's new 1000+ minute plans that lock you in for two years - question a business has to answer is what about my costs for the next 1000 minutes per month. With Direct Connect Nextel has the next 10,000+ minutes per user already covered for $35-40 per month MAX nationwide. This is like giving away candy - a compelling inducement to move onto Nextel's network which will be far more integrated than simple one-shop PCS retail. PT, your vision is really quite limited. A year ago a veritable chorus of spookmeisters were threading their way around talking about PCS competition and yet what has Nextel done in spite of them all - compelled AT&T to finally go for the jugular in a desparate attempt to maintain marketshare as their core long distance revenues are being slashed to pieces. Nextel is far more nimble and aggressive than any competitor in the field. They will continue to surprise us all IMHO. This is not a ra-ra thread. And you have yet to offer anything in the way of hard and fast details to outline your bearish opinion. All I can fathom is that you are short the stock, period. To which I say, God Bless.

To: P.T.Burnem who wrote (3624)	12/11/1997 2:56:00 PM
From: Arnie Doolittle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10227

PT, if you knew what you were talking about, you would be dangerous. :-))) It's fundos, not valuation theories that have driven the stock. The same analysts who were touting the stock at 13 are touting it today. No, the move to 32 was not driven by NXTL "being found" by analysts. NXTL's story has been widely known for several years, although many like you doubt its validity. The stock moved based on fundos, namely, quarterly adds, nationwide footprint, no roaming charges, and per second billing after the first minute. Granted, momentum drove the stock too far too fast but that doesn't denigrate the potential of this company. Remember, Craig McCaw antes up at $16 or so per share. Do you think he expects the stock to be worth less when the company is one of only 3 or 4 wireless companies with a nationwide footprint? He's looking for some multiple of his investment, and not a tiny percentage. NXTL's footprint is a reality, not a fiction created by some aggressive broker. Ditto direct connect. Ditto $70 arpu. Ditto one million users. Ditto largest number of adds in the industry last quarter. Ditto ADVANTAGE NEXTEL. Tell me, since no one else has direct connect to offer mobile work groups, where is NXTL's PCS competition for high users going to come from? ADVANTAGE NEXTEL. The biggest risk NXTL faces in the short term is market risk. Exhibit A is yesterday and today. But notice what happens when the market turns: NXTL is front and center as smart investors lap up the stock. In the long term? NXTL's biggest challenge will be building an organization fast enough to take care of the explosive growth its experiencing. With Akerson in the driver's seat, we don't need to worry about cost control or focusing on goals; he's on top of those issues. ADVANTAGE NEXTEL. Next year when NXTL turns cash flow positive, the boo bears like yourself will still be "Yeah, butting" except the subject will be lack of earnings, not negative cash flow and the coming competition from the commodity PCS crowd. The stock will be north of here, probably above 40 (after touching 55), and I'll still be here counting profits. PT, since you don't like the valuation theories that others use for NXTL, why not share your valuation technique for NXTL and let's see how it holds up in the light of this thread. Arnie