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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (24773)12/11/1997 1:01:00 PM
From: Paul Merriwether  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
<<Suppose you buy XYZ at $100. The fundamentals look good. Along comes the Asian
flu and the price drops to $85. You check with the company and find that they have
very slight Asian exposure in terms of sales, but they buy a significant amount of
components from Asian suppliers. >>

You are betting that there won't be a slowdown in the US economy. Also
that the PC demand will continue at its current pace. Not good bets
imho



To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (24773)12/11/1997 1:30:00 PM
From: James H. Irwin  Respond to of 176387
 
To some extent I understand your position.

As to your cost basis on CPQ of $0.26 it now makes sense to me.

In your example, I buy 1000 shares of everything, not trading much in the $100 range in general. If I buy a stock at $100 and its down 2 points I'm out, no questions asked. I may buy it back but the reason I bought it was I thought it was going up right away. I think its better for most small individual investors to frequent in the $15 to $35 dollar names as those are the ones which statistically (no empirical evidence other than 17 years experience as an ex-institutional equity salesman at a boutique) frequent in. PM's (Portfoliio Managers) want to buy 50,000 at 17 on its way to 25 in the sector of the market we are talking about. At least that's what I focused on for my customers. Shoot for 50% give 'em 30% if that's all you get, take a double if numbers outperform, but if anything smells fishy, let'em know. Salesman always hope too much. I can remember many times when a stock was down 2 telling my customer if you don't get out now, the next person I call probably will and you'll want that bid.

I feel like the Allman Bros tune: born a ramblin' man.

enough self-gratuitous BS.

In closing, this has been the biggest bull market we have ever seen. Everyone I know is sold on buying the dips believing prices will hold.
What if they don't? That's all I'm saying. Anything that prevents you from playing tomorrow is a bad position. And why earn the same money twice. There are plenty of good companies going up/poorly performing going down.

Lunchtime. Ciao.
Jim