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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (53456)	2/19/2014 1:01:14 PM
From: E_K_S	1 Recommendation Recommended By Mattyice Respond to of 78705

Re: Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP (CLMT) I am not buying yet but have orders in at $25.44/share and lower. My avg cost is at $28.28/share so even at the current price, I am w/i 3% of the current price (a new 52wk low too). Remember, that the time to acquire "Value" stocks is when everybody else is throwing in the towel. Their current report shows sales increasing but margins decreasing which management was describing as coming back to some "normalized" rate. The thing that popped out for me are the several projects they have in process categorized as "organic growth" which come online in the next few years. I like their exposure here. Calumet also acquired Bel-Ray Company, LLC, a manufacturer and global distributor of high-performance lubricants and greases. Long term this should provide them a "pipeline" to distribute their specialty products all over the world and hopefully they can maintain their high margins. Maybe we will see a distribution cut as their present cash flows do not support their current distributions. In fact, they only covered 20% of their last quarter's payment. If/when they announce a cut, the stock will sell off. I plan to up my shares by 30% at that time. My thought is that looking out past 24 months, their organic growth projects will be contributing to revenues and should help (w/ proper management and hedges) them maintain profitable margins. I continue to like their MDU JV but as a percent of their total revenues, it's still small. MDU has a lot of storage assets that w/ the proper pipeline infrastructure, CLMT and MDU could create a Midstream operation that would make their entire refining channel very efficient (ie from well to end-user product). It's not clear if this is their ultimate vision but many of the pieces and regional footprint are there to make that happen. That's my take and longer term speculation. My position is still small about 1.5% of the taxable portfolio. If/when a MDU/CLMT Midstream project becomes reality, I will bump this up to a 4%-5% portfolio position. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (53456)	2/19/2014 1:25:34 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78705

Re: Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP (CLMT) I am not buying yet but have orders in at $25.44/share and lower. My avg cost is at $28.28/share so even at the current price, I am w/i 3% of the current price (a new 52wk low too). Remember, that the time to acquire "Value" stocks is when everybody else is throwing in the towel. Their current report shows sales increasing but margins decreasing which management was describing as coming back to some "normalized" rate. The thing that popped out for me are the several projects they have in process categorized as "organic growth" which come online in the next few years. I like their exposure here. Calumet also acquired Bel-Ray Company, LLC, a manufacturer and global distributor of high-performance lubricants and greases. Long term this should provide them a "pipeline" to distribute their specialty products all over the world and hopefully they can maintain their high margins. Maybe we will see a distribution cut as their present cash flows do not support their current distributions. In fact, they only covered 20% of their last quarter's payment. If/when they announce a cut, the stock will sell off. I plan to up my shares by 30% at that time. My thought is that looking out past 24 months, their organic growth projects will be contributing to revenues and should help (w/ proper management and hedges) them maintain profitable margins. I continue to like their MDU JV but as a percent of their total revenues, it's still small. MDU has a lot of storage assets that w/ the proper pipeline infrastructure, CLMT and MDU could create a Midstream operation that would make their entire refining channel very efficient (ie from well to end-user product). It's not clear if this is their ultimate vision but many of the pieces and regional footprint are there to make that happen. That's my take and longer term speculation. My position is still small about 1.5% of the taxable portfolio. If/when a MDU/CLMT Midstream project becomes reality, I will bump this up to a 4%-5% portfolio position. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (53456)	2/19/2014 5:10:18 PM
From: LTBH	1 Recommendation Recommended By E_K_S Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78705

I believe its a matter of execution. In an effort to mitigate both RINs and crack spreads they have moved aggressively this last year on a number of fronts to add new geography re asphalt and the new refinery, expanding into a global footprint via the new acquisition as well as increasing capacity and debottlenecking several existing facilities. Now its all a matter of containing costs on the new refinery, lowering leverage via cash flows and execution follow through. I continue to hold a slightly over full 9.5% position with some $25 shares added on a past dip. The excess is on the block to trim position back to normal 8% size when $30 is hit. I see todays trading pretty positive in that the knee jerk only closed CLMT at $27.68 when last Friday's close was $27.41. FWIW, over the years I have purchased from the low 16s to the low 28s, I rolled off a number of units (which were my cheapest/earliest buys) when it was banging on $40 and my current average PURCHASE cost without adjustments for distributions (or anything else) is $23.5595. Luck LTBH

To: Paul Senior who wrote (53456)	2/28/2014 9:23:19 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78705

Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. Acquires United Petroleum Company Acquisition Expands Calumet's Portfolio of Premium Branded Lubricants Solutions; Further Bolsters Sales, Marketing and Distribution Capabilities of Specialty Products business Makes me feel a bit better to do a few more buys at the current level knowing they are buying assets that allow them to further maintain their high product margins by acquiring another distributor w/ distribution channels in 35 states. The higher margins will go to their bottom line too. No terms disclosed on the deal but if they paid in stock even better. I am still waiting for a distribution cut and/or secondary as that would present an excellent buying opportunity. However, share current price is close to a 52wk low so it still may be worth a buy at current levels. This is a long term "value" play IMO as the benefits of their recent acquisitions (two retail/wholesale distributors now) will take time to integrate into their end-to-end refinery channels. I also think that once this economy picks up traction, CLMT will be a big beneficiary of this growth. Their lubricants go into many of the capital assets (ie farm equipment, machinery, generators/pumps etc.) that are put into service during this phase of the domestic economic recovery. Therefore, I see the pieces in place for revenue growth, and more importantly distribution growth. Their most recent earnings call was disappointing but I see the glass half full and rising. EKS