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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (770341)

2/22/2014 9:18:33 PM

From: Bilow

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1574681

Hi mindmeld; Nice website. Unfortunately for you, it shows that the government's estimates for inflation are only wrong by about 0.5% per year. Look at the 6th column:

Net Reduction in CPI-U inflation from Changes in Methodology As Reflected in the CPI-U-RS versus CPI-U Series (1980 to 2011) Table Described in Text following, Sources: ShadowStats, BLS
Year	Average CPI-U-RS	(1) CPI-U-RS Yr/Yr	Average CPI-U	(2) CPI-U-RS Yr/Yr	(1)-(2) Change in Annual Inflation*	Cumulative Annual Inflation Shortfall
1980	127.1		82.4			0
1981	139.2	9.5%	90.9	10.3%	-0.8%	-0.8%
1982	147.6	6.0%	96.5	6.2%	-0.1%	-0.9%
1983	153.9	4.3%	99.6	3.2%	1.1%	0.1%
1984	160.2	4.1%	103.9	4.3%	-0.2%	-0.1%
1985	165.7	3.4%	107.6	3.6%	-0.1%	-0.2%
1986	168.7	1.8%	109.6	1.9%	0.0%	-0.3%
1987	174.4	3.4%	113.6	3.6%	-0.3%	-0.5%
1988	180.8	3.7%	118.3	4.1%	-0.5%	-1.0%
1989	188.6	4.3%	124.0	4.8%	-0.5%	-1.5%
1990	198.0	5.0%	130.7	5.4%	-0.4%	-1.9%
1991	205.1	3.6%	136.2	4.2%	-0.6%	-2.5%
1992	210.3	2.5%	140.3	3.0%	-0.5%	-3.0%
1993	215.5	2.5%	144.5	3.0%	-0.5%	-3.5%
1994	220.1	2.1%	148.2	2.6%	-0.4%	-4.0%
1995	225.4	2.4%	152.4	2.8%	-0.4%	-4.4%
1996	231.4	2.7%	156.9	3.0%	-0.3%	-4.7%
1997	236.4	2.2%	160.5	2.3%	-0.1%	-4.8%
1998	239.7	1.4%	163.0	1.6%	-0.2%	-5.0%

1999	244.7	2.1%	166.6	2.2%	-0.1%	-5.1%
2000	252.9	3.4%	172.2	3.4%	0.0%	-5.1%
2001	260.0	2.8%	177.1	2.8%	0.0%	-5.2%
2002	264.2	1.6%	179.9	1.6%	0.0%	-5.1%
2003	270.1	2.2%	184.0	2.3%	0.0%	-5.2%
2004	277.4	2.7%	188.9	2.7%	0.0%	-5.1%
2005	286.7	3.4%	195.3	3.4%	0.0%	-5.2%
2006	296.1	3.3%	201.6	3.2%	0.1%	-5.1%
2007	304.5	2.8%	207.3	2.8%	0.0%	-5.1%
2008	316.2	3.8%	215.3	3.8%	0.0%	-5.1%
2009	315.0	-0.4%	214.5	-0.4%	0.0%	-5.1%
2010	320.2	1.7%	218.1	1.6%	0.0%	-5.1%
2011	330.3	3.2%	224.9	3.2%	0.0%	-5.1%

Now it's true that, over time, small changes do add up, hence the graphs you've posted.

What you've provided is an independent verification that there is no hyperinflation, at least right now, and that the official government indications of inflation are substantially correct. You're arguing over stuff on the right side of the decimal point.

But it's even worse than that for your argument. Look at the data after the split I put between 1998 and 1999. You can see that for the years 1999 to 2011, the "shadowstats" and the government figures differ by at most 0.1% and that they average to zero. In other words, since 1999, the government figures are spot-on.

-- Carl

To: RetiredNow who wrote (770341)	2/22/2014 9:45:11 PM
From: Bilow	1 Recommendation Recommended By bentway Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1574681

Hi mindmeld; Re shadowstat... Before you believe their predictions, it might be useful to look at how they've done previously. (This is the standard that conservatives hold the climate scientists to and the climate scientists also fail miserably.) From their website, their report of June 2008: Events Moving at an Accelerating Pace Towards the Great Collapse Little has changed in the basic outlook. The U.S. economic and systemic-solvency crises of the last five years continue to deteriorate. Yet they remain just the precursors to the coming Great Collapse: a hyperinflationary great depression. The unfolding circumstance will encompass a complete loss in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar; a collapse in the normal stream of U.S. commercial and economic activity; a collapse in the U.S. financial system, as we know it; and a likely realignment of the U.S. political environment. Outside timing on the hyperinflation remains 2014, but events of the last year have accelerated the movement towards this ultimate dollar catastrophe. Following Mr. Bernanke’s extraordinary efforts to debase the U.S. currency in late-2010, the dollar had lost its traditional safe-haven status by early-2011. Whatever global confidence had remained behind the U.S dollar was lost in July and August. That was in response to the lack of political will—shown by those who control the White House and Congress—to address the long-range insolvency of the U.S. government, and as a result of the later credit-rating downgrade to U.S. Treasury debt. shadowstats.com Oooops. Here it is 2014 and no hyperinflation. Here's my prediction: They'll continue predicting the coming hyperinflation is "just around the corner" until their subscribers quit sending them money. In fact, I believe, that in the fullness of time, we will see a true hyperinflationary depression. But we're not seeing one now. I suspect that the next hyperinflationary depression in the US won't happen for many decades. -- Carl