To: ddl who wrote (3160 ) 12/11/1997 3:23:00 PM From: Jesse Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7966
Yes, Denis-- I realize in re-reading my cranked-out post I didn't fairly state what Kaiser was getting at! Among his comments, including that we will likely hear an announcement of a large bulk sampling on K14 in 1998 (which compares to Diamet when it shot to $60- after delivering convincing results), he said the following:Keeping in mind that the Alberta pipes are much larger than the NWT pipes, will have much better development logistics and shorter permitting cycles, and have much lower operating costs, high grade pipes like Aber's A154 wouldn't be required to push Ashton's implied project value toward the $2 billion mark enjoyed by Aber and Dia Met. " He then remarked that if there WAS a pipe of same grade, well, don't even ask. He was not implying that there is evidence of such a grade. In fact, he commented we need news confirming world-class potentiality to get this play into high gear. Forgive my quick report before -- it missed the point! --------- Re. today's price movement, very little volume so not really indicative of anything. As Frank just said, the stock has comparatively held up very well-- while so many of the specs are in the porcelain bowl. If we see no ACA news before year-end, we will prob'ly see very low volume coupled with a mild decline in price. I say this because we've held so well so far through this tax-loss sell season, double-whammied by the Asian market jitters. The lack of Ashton news as anticipated will hurt a bit, but we'll heal mighty fast come the new year! The whole play should get on wheels in the first Q. -I believe that that's when more institutional buying will come in as well, for the big score. For now, in their window-dressing period, they are avoiding showing any specs in their portfolios, due to the spec resource sector plummeting (don't want to be fired for having such 'bad' gambles in their books). Once the 1st quarter starts and they are freer to buy and sell out of the view of fund shareholders, they will not want to miss out on what could be the biggest story of 1998, at least for Canada. YES, I know institutional buying will come in, especially with more positive news. These kind of scores are what put fund-managers on the map (eg., DMM, AQP, DFR), and they aren't about to miss out. They just do it discretely before the public learns of the big find (and shareprice is up factorially); thereafter they can boast of their savvy and vision. If the score turns out to be less than huge, they simply omit the shares from said portfolios... -imho- Best Regards, -J :>