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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (104550)	2/23/2014 10:13:30 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218449

There was a huge easing to avoid the US go belly up. The easing solved all the problems the US had. Removing the mechanism that avoided the US go belly up will hurt the rest of the world. The rest of the world has a lot to reform to improve.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (104550)	2/23/2014 10:48:37 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218449

The Big Dog, the BIS, has defined the credit "gap" as the difference between credit, as a percentage of GDP, and its long-term trend. China's credit gap is about 14% of GDP, according to The Economist's calculations based on BIS data. Historically, a gap bigger than 10% has served as a reliable early-warning indicator of a crisis within the next three years, with only a 15% chance of a false alarm, according to a study of 39 countries by Mathias Drehmann of the BIS. economist.com bis.org piie.com Seems that the Chinese financial system has significant risks associated with debt, which is huge. The Petersen Institute paper at pp. 13-18 lays things out very well. The BIS study also seems quite accurate. My guess: If there is a crisis, which seems a significant prospect to me, Chinese demand for gold will go insane. And even if no systemic crisis takes place, there will be a lot of stress, a lot of tension, a lot of gnashing of teeth. The skinny: Present Chinese demand for gold might well be simple front-running of the astute. It will grow a lot in the next couple of years. Might be a good time to monetize HK real estate.