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Technology Stocks : COMS & the Ghost of USRX w/ other STUFF -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (10547)12/11/1997 4:14:00 PM
From: simonds  Respond to of 22053
 
Below 30, not in short term. The last time it hit 30 that's when the stock changed to stronger hands among institutions. If you want to make short money, look at cisco. This last and biggest networking cockroach is about to come out. We could see low 60 within 2 months.

cisco's problems:
1) Router sales has been milked to death. No growth on all levels; threat of switch/router to high and mid levels, high levels are relegated to edge routing. The used router market and low priced Asian made routers are killing the 2500. Tag switching backfires.
2) Cisco has to grow the switch and hub market share; cost more to build and lower margin. It has stackable hub, but no stackable switch.
Stackable switch is what people want, unless you're fortune 100.
3) AS5300 sales is flat because of 56k modem war.
4) Intense competition on WAN switch from asnd and nn.

It's an indication of lower revenue, higher operating cost, lower margin. Someone just downgraded it's growth to 25%. I'll give it 22pe of (0.9 of $3.25 forward looking) = $64.3.

regards,
simonds