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To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (8332)	12/11/1997 3:48:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 25814

What we concurred with was the point in the article that much of the New Equipment orders would be diverted to Taiwan and U.S. companies.. Point taken. But when 40+% of the industry is in a funk, the other 60-% cannot compensate for this. That's like saying Chrysler and FORD will make up for GM's shortfall in capital spending. Won't happen. First the 60-% companies won't have the funds to make up for the shortfall. Second the 60-% companies won't have the manpower. Third there is oversupply already. Before they build they have to first find a market to absorb the oversupply. Granted the leading logic companies are located here and that means the spending will continue. But the major thrusts in spending come with DRAM build-ups because DRAM is still a huge chunk of spending. And we are still far from close to anywhere near meeting demand here. And for end-user demand most chips are still used by the PC industry. If that slows down there will be trouble.