To: alchemy who wrote (1701 ) 12/11/1997 5:20:00 PM From: Hunter Vann Respond to
Martin....I would tend to disagree, I think NAMX & DBDY are HUGE gambles. And for your info., my bookie IS my best friend. Kind of ironic, huh? As for gambling, I'm really not a gambler in the sense that you think. I'm pretty much of a 'middler', trying to find games that have a dramatic increase or decrease in their particluar spread or over/unders. The Risk/Reward ratio is quite good. Risk $10 to make $100 or risk $100 to make $1000. Example: Lakers/Suns : Over/Under 189. If you bet the 189 over, and then by game time this number moves up by a significant amount, say 195, you would then counter the same dollar amount with a 195 under bet. Laying $100 on each side, you either win $100, win $200, or lose $20. Pretty good, huh? I know you like %'s so here they are. You have a 6% chance of hitting exactly on either of the two numbers(which you result in a push on one side and a win on the other, net $100). You have basically a 10% chance of hitting in the middle(which would reslt in a $200 win), and you have an 84% chance of hitting outside the numbers(which would result in the loss of the juice, $20 bucks). So, on a REGULAR bet, you have a 50% chance of winning and a 50% chance of losing. If you played this scenario out 50 times betting each time $100 dollars, your total loss would be -500. So, you're exactly correct in your assumption that the majority of ALL gamblers lose. No arguement here. However, if you are a good 'middler' the above scenario plays out quite differently. If you multiply the above numbers by their respective %'s, the same situation would net you $1165, while risking 80-90% less capital.
