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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6174)	12/11/1997 5:09:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Respond to of 152472

RS - "There is no way that China is going to escape this round." Not necessarily so. Although China probably has many of the same internal problems as the rest of SEA, it isn't necessarily true that they will fall off the cliff this round. They are still centrally controlled to a much greater degree than the other SEA countries, and as a result they can postpone their fall much longer by shear control ('if you panic, I'll shoot you' - after all, look how long the USSR managed to avoid paying the piper) Also, the government controls a much higher percentage of the assets, and it isn't likely to panic itself. Of course in the long run this just means a bigger fall when it happens. Clark PS I still do not understand why you think that this is likely to have any significant long term effect (1 year)on American companies. After all, all of SEA only accounts for less than 15% of consumer goods used, and while it may be true that they were the fastest growing region, unless they were growing at several hundred percent per year it is impossible for the SEA economies to account for more than a few percent of the expected 20 to 30% growth in semiconductors and telecommunications.