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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (182834)	3/2/2014 7:52:54 AM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 206334

I see they failed to mention how much ng demand for power generation has been impacted by pipeline curtailments, but they did mention some coal plants tripping do to cold weather. I would bet more gas plants were impacted by freeze issues than coal plants. Most coal plants have been around for ages and are more prepared for cold weather. I doubt the market clearing mechanism is going to be so smooth, but we shall see. Q1 earnings reports should be interesting both from the producers and the consumers of energy. Our January electric bill at work is up about 150%. I wonder how much factory production was impacted by gas curtailments as well.

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (182834)	3/2/2014 8:32:16 AM
From: Bearcatbob	Respond to of 206334

Ed, I note ACI has rebounded. I would guess that is a reflection of the switching you address in your note. Bob

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (182834)	3/2/2014 10:58:59 AM
From: Hannoverian	6 Recommendations Recommended By CommanderCricket isopatch Jim P. quehubo teevee and 1 more member Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206334

ED, I have little faith in the analyst community. My only experience with them is in regards to the O&G business. & based on my interfacing with the analyst community-anals?-though now somewhat dated, I believe they can not see beyond their models. More specifically no real life experience with the full spectrum aspects of what they are attempting to model & thus predict for investors. & even worse paying investors. That said, what's 200 BCF here or there? To be precise, 1 BCF/day over the ~210 days of refill. IMHO what we are witnessing is a slow train wreck regarding daily NG production. I agree we will see NG to Coal switching. Again, that gets modeled every year & unless my memory is wrong, the analysts over estimate the Coal usage in the Summer year after year. Again in my opinion, coal is to quote "dirty" environmentally & politically speaking, even worse than "those dirty Canadian oil sands". But back to my train wreck. The strip as this analyst projects will not precipitate new NG drilling. Related I spent >4 hours Friday volunteering with an Anadarko RE working the Marcellus. Anadarko's 2014 drilling in the Marcellus is simply down spacing, where rules allow, by off setting good wells that had good IP's & by his work have high Ps regarding EUR's. In other words, the lowest of risk, simply capturing the low hanging fruit with a price of slightly <$5.00/MCF @ least for one year. Absolutely no plans to bring in stacked rigs without crews & the needed site prep etc. He laughed @ the question! Ed you know the '13/'14 draw, close enough to 2900 BCF for Government work. If our analyst is off by 1 BCF/day, 3600 BCF in storage might become 3400 BCF & what if another cold '14/'15 & another pull of 2900 BCF-or >!-500 BCF left in what 600 storage facilities? Some will run out pressure wise. The LDC's & the other Storage Operators/Investors like their jobs & their bonuses. I believe we both agree, over the next ~210 starting on ~4/1, storage will be filled as much as possible. The operative words, as much as possible. In closing, the Domestic NG production, note that Domestically we are down >20% YOY rig wise. 2013 drilling netted a slightly >1 BCF/day increase, which is the smallest increase in new NG production in the last 3 or 4 years. To get the '14 mid-year >3 BCF/day production increase the analysts are looking for via the definition of "new NG production", the analysts need to leave the modeling room & shovel in hand bring awaiting Marcellus wells on line via pipelines in batches of 0.5 BCF/day as in monthly for the next six (6) months. As always, JMHO & to much in one of my infrequent posts. Glad to see SI & BDBBR picking up post wise.