To: goldsnow who wrote (4157 ) 12/11/1997 6:02:00 PM From: goldsnow Respond to of 116871
FEATURE-Japan life insurers may be next casualty 03:35 a.m. Dec 11, 1997 Eastern By Fumiko Fujisaki TOKYO, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Sliding stock prices and mounting cancellations by individual policy holders are fuelling fears that Japan's life insurance firms may be next in line to experience a shakeout in the financial industry. Because many Japanese life insurers are mutual companies owned by policyholders, problems at the companies have been less visible than those at exchange-listed banks and brokers. But depending on where stock prices close on March 31 -- the end of the current financial year -- some life insurance firms may not able to meet promised dividend payment requirements for policy holders this year, analysts say. WEAK LINKS UNMASKED ''If they (life insurers) were listed, some would have already been labelled as failed firms by the markets,'' said one industry analyst who declined to be identified. Japanese life insurance firms are cash-rich, backed by huge assets. They are providers of funds in the money market and this means it is unlikely they will tap the money market as borrowers, he said. However, he said stock prices towards the end of next March may force weak firms to go under. ''If stock prices remain at current low levels they must post huge stock appraisal losses which will force them to post net losses,'' he said. ''If they post net losses in 1997/98, it means they cannot continue business as they fail to meet contracts to pay dividends every year to policy holders.'' Analysts say big insurers have enough unrealised profits on shareholdings to cover sudden losses and write-offs, but some of the smaller firms have little cushion left. HEALTHY LIFE INSURANCE DOUBTS At the Nikkei average's current level -- around 16,000 -- nine of the 16 big and mid-sized life insurers experience unrealised losses on their shareholdings. When the market value of a stock they hold falls below book value, the insurers must write down appraisal losses at the business year-end on March 31. At the end of March 1997, the Nikkei closed at 18,003. On Wednesday, it ended at 16,478.12. Earlier this year, a mid-sized life insurer, Nissan Mutual Life, went under, marking the first failure of a life insurance firm in Japan's post-war history. When it was ordered to shut by the Finance Ministry on April 25, Nissan Mutual shocked the financial market by admitting it had held huge liabilities for the past three to four years because of excessive stock and real estate investments in the late 1980s. The failure prompted policyholders to doubt the health of other companies, especially after the life insurance industry called on policy holders to accept a cut in guaranteed returns on their policies as part of a plan to deal with Nissan Mutual's staggering 300 billion yen ($2.30 billion) in losses. Diminishing confidence in the life insurance sector was confirmed last month when the 16 main life insurance firms unveiled their business data for the first six months. Ten of the insurers said the total value of their individual policies as of the end of September fell from a year earlier as new orders fell and cancellations increased. In particular, declines in the policies at Chiyoda Mutual Life Insurance and Toho Mutual Life Insurance were more than five percent. Plaguing the industry are Japan's super-low official interest rates, which drive down the yields on other investments. Those lower yields make it increasingly difficult for the insurers to honour their commitments on trillions of yen in policies sold in the late 1980s with higher guaranteed returns. ''Some life insurance firms are something like a bomb (in Japan's financial system)...But what is unclear is how the authorities are dealing with the problem of troubled life insurers,'' said another analyst, who also declined to be identified. Deeper worries about the nation's insurance industry whirl around the lack of a permanent safety net. While the government is working on a new payment guarantee system for insurance policy holders in the event of the possible collapse of an insurance company, such a system is not likely to be implemented until April 1999, analysts said. INDUSTRY LOOKS TO CUSHION BURDEN Earlier this month, a study group of the Finance Ministry called on insurance companies to join the system, which would be funded by contributions from the industry. The panel also called for a cap on maximum payment guarantees. An official at the industry's body, the Life Insurance Association of Japan, said the association has asked the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to consider the use of public money to protect policyholders. ''There is an opinion that insurance policies should be fully protected but it is difficult for the industry to bear the burden on its own,'' he said. ^REUTERS@ Copyright 1997 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.