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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (11322)	12/12/1997 5:38:00 PM
From: P.Prazeres	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

The arms index or ratio is the ratio of the advancers/decliners divided by the ratio of the up volume/down volume of a particular market or exchange. Generally on the NYSE, when the arms index goes over 1.50, it is seen as a bullish indicator because it signals that "fearful" selling is occuring. During the October drop, the NYSE arms index got over 10. So as a short term indicator, when I computed the arms on the NYSE yesterday at noon to be 2.08, it told me that we may have a pretty good bounce in the afternoon....and we did. But the ensuing last hour selloff was evidence of more trouble ahead because even with the selloff occuring at noon, the bounce was sold into... the arms on the nasdaq was 3.05 during the noon hour yesterday....but SE Asia is the concern for the tech sellers so maybe that isn't a high enough reading for the nasdaq arms to finaaly signal a bottom. Unfortunately, I don't know where to find an intraday chart of the arms index on the NYSE or the Nasdaq. It would really shouw where the indiscriminant selling was occuring and with a intraday volume chart beside it, one could try to see if the indiscriminant selling is occuring on relatively low volume. On the techs.... One other reason for the bruising in the techs may be the "window dressing" effect...except for the negative reasons...maybe some fund managers don't want to admit their exposure to techs (and by association, Asia) to their shareholders. Eventually, HK and the rest of SE Asia will be back to their growth and the beaten up techs will shine again....the question is how long do we have to wait. THE BK in some of the techs is occuring, just look at their charts...so many of them look like they have fallen off cliffs. Just some thoughts.... Paulo