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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: JohnM who wrote (246487)3/4/2014 4:22:43 PM
From: JohnM  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 543849
 
And here's the previous brief Krugman piece on Ryan's proposals, the one to which he refers in his first sentence or two.
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MARCH 4, 2014, 9:32 AM
Flimflam, The Next Generation

I took Paul Ryan’s measure almost four years ago, back when everyone in Washington was determined to see him as the Serious, Honest Conservative they knew had to exist somewhere. Everything we’ve seen of him since then has confirmed that initial judgment. When you see a big report from Ryan, you shouldn’t ask “Is this a con job?” but instead skip right to “Where’s the con?”

And so it is with the new poverty report.

Give Ryan some points for originality. In his various budgets, he relied mainly on magic asterisks — unspecified savings and revenue sources to be determined later; he was able to convince many pundits that he had a grand fiscal plan when the reality was that he was just assuming his conclusions, and that the assumptions were fundamentally ridiculous. But this time he uses a quite different technique.

What he offers is a report making some strong assertions, and citing an impressive array of research papers. What you aren’t supposed to notice is that the research papers don’t actually support the assertions.

In some cases we’re talking about artful misrepresentation of what the papers say, drawing angry protests from the authors. In other cases the misdirection is more subtle.

Take the treatment of Medicaid and work incentives. I’m going to teach the best available survey on these issues tonight, which looks at the research and finds little evidence of significant disincentive effects from Medicaid (or food stamps). That’s not at all the impression you get from the Ryan report. So I looked at the Medicaid section, and found that it contains a more or less unstructured listing of lots of papers; if you read that list carefully, you find that there really isn’t anything in there making a strong case for large incentive effects.

In other words, the research citations are just there to make the report sound well-informed; they aren’t actually used to derive the conclusions, which more or less come out of thin air.

Oh, and there are the usual Medicaid zombies too.

The thing is, we could be having a serious discussion about welfare and incentives; there are some real issues. But there isn’t anyone to have that discussion with.



To: JohnM who wrote (246487)3/4/2014 7:09:46 PM
From: Steve Lokness  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 543849
 
Are the safety nets so extreme at the other end of Krugmans chart?

Taking Norway - which I believe is one of the most generous of the Scandinavian countries - they do have some very generous social programs, but they come with strings attached. Their retirement age is 67 for instance. Their unemployment is only good for a year and it comes with strings attached. Where they do shine is in their health care/ After a person pays all of the first 2,000 Kroner the State picks up the rest. ..........But the thing is, they pay for theirs. I would think Krugman would be sputtering against the high rate of taxes in Norway.

And BTW, despite all this - the high taxes and restrictions on entitlements, Norway has become far richer than the US on a per capita basis. They have this higher standard of living despite high taxes.

Here is an interesting look at a comparison;
inc.com