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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (182885)3/13/2014 7:21:33 AM
From: Dennis Roth2 Recommendations

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LoneClone

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Energy Weekly: Winter Stress Tests The European-US Natural Gas
Spread — Divergent Weather Patterns Narrowed The HH-NBP
Spread To ˜$3.50, The Ukraine Crisis Means That It Is As Tight As It Gets
12 March 2014 ¦ 13 pages ir.citi.com

The brutal cold in the US and a temperate winter in Europe provided an excellent
stress test of the spread between US and European gas prices, with the spread
reaching a low of ~$3.50/MMBtu in mid-February, until the Ukraine crisis put at
least a temporary floor into the European market. The polar vortex that swept
across North America this winter and tested the limits of the US gas network has
pushed gas inventories 25-bcm (0.9 Tcf) lower vs. a year ago and briefly took
gas prices over $6/MMBtu. Mild weather in Europe left gas inventories ~10-bcm
higher y/y (37%), forcing prompt NBP prices $2-2.5/MMBtu lower since early
December. The drop in industrial and power generation demand for gas in
Europe has raised the residential/commercial proportion of total demand from
38% in 2011 to 44% in 2013.