Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: getgo234 who wrote (25071)	12/12/1997 12:29:00 AM
From: Richard Russell	Respond to of 53903

>>When will this type of news start to have a positive impact on MU's stock price ? Comments please.<< NEVER. Are you long or just considering going long. RR

To: getgo234 who wrote (25071)	12/12/1997 8:42:00 AM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Respond to of 53903

getgo234, I don't know. I'm inclined to say "not soon". FWIW... Industry-level: News that would suggest supply-demand parity coming sooner rather than later would on balance be a good thing. One of the problems is that while the Koreans may be cutting back on expansion, we still have the Japanese and Taiwainese to consider. I think the WSJ had a piece today mentioning NEC and Hitatchi were cutting cap. equipment purchases by only around 7-8%. And you're also looking at the fact that there is still overcapacity that needs demand to kick in. Before a lot of $$$ starts coming back in, I'm assuming these MM's need some confidence that pricing is stabilizing and IMHO that is still a few months off. Firm-level: IMHO, still looking at two rough quarters (Nov '97, Feb. '98) minimum. Psychology: Not incredibly positive at this point. End of the year and the stock's been beaten already and looks like a good candidate to kick out at a loss (assuming any MM's are left in there), techs taking it on the chin, 2-year low within striking distance. Then there's also the earnings to consider. First Call est. now at .10? (Give these guys a hand - they've managed to get the analysts down from .33 to .10 without much notice. When is the last time you heard Maria Bartiromo mention an analyst cutting MU. Funny, but when it was going up - lots of news.) If if somehow manages to make a run to the upside after earnings, I think the rally would fall into the "fools rally" category and be primarily driven by covering - in which case I'd look at a good sell entry. If you trade it, there's money to be made on either side. As an investment, I don't see it as incredibly compelling at this pt. But if you do, maybe you look at some downside insurance w/ puts. Good trading, Tom

To: getgo234 who wrote (25071)	12/12/1997 10:28:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

getgo, the REALITY is - and apologies to those that don't want to face REALITY - 1998 production capacity is SET IN STONE. 1998 SUPPLY WILL NOT BE AFFECTED. korea will try and EXPORT THEIR WAY OUT OF THEIR PROBLEMS - DRAM INCLUDED. mu will not make much money in 1998. maybe they will post a loss for the year. that is another year to fall behind the big boys on the technology front. another year to spend down their resources to buy equipment to fall behind less slowly. why pay $25 for what may or may not happen in 1999. if you do i think you are making a terrible mistake. jmho...