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To: Harry Landsiedel who wrote (1970)	12/11/1997 10:50:00 PM
From: DAN KACKLEY	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8218

To all: Looks like it's down hill till 2Q98??? IBM as been rising since late 1993 with a yearly ranges of approx: 1993 23-31 1994 26-40 1995 36-57 1996 45-82 1997 64-114 This year and last year january was the start of a major down trend that ended by mid year. This is where the yearly lows were set,which could be a similar trend for 1998 Until the recent suckers rally to 114 IBM had been trending down from august to mid November. Breaking through 105 broke the down trend and probibally caused panic for the short sellers. Today we broke back thru the down trend at approx. 104.5 and closed at between 101 and 102 thus pointing to further weakness Given the current global weakness, IBM's price of 101+ with a long term moving average at about 67, I beleive we could be heading for a 1998 low between 65-75! Also IBM has a buy back plan in position, wouldn't they want to buy back at a lower price? Any Comments????

To: Harry Landsiedel who wrote (1970)	12/11/1997 10:52:00 PM
From: Jules B. Garfunkel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8218

Harry, Thank you very much for remembering. I find it rather ironic that today's WSJ article was based on Merill Lynch's Mainframe analyst's opinion of IBM. If you recall, back in January 97, when I first realized that the quality of IBM's earning's were very poor, I posted my reasons for that opinion on this thread. At that time I referred to the previous Merrill Lynch analyst, Dan Mandrish, as IBM's leading Bull. I now regard Dan's retirement as very timely. It must have been an extremely difficult decision for the new ML Mainframe analyst to make. To be one of the first analysts to raise doubts about the IBM's quality of earnings, took guts. My question is though, where were all the other WS analysts, over the last nine months, not to have declared that "The Empiror has No Clothes". Regards, Jules