David, this is one reason why SI members are confused:
Computers & Technology Will 56K-Modem Standard Kick
Sales Into High Gear?
Investor's Business Daily
Thu, Dec 11 1997
The battle was fierce, if short-lived. Now both sides claim victory.
The International Telecommunications Union appears ready to establish
specifications for 56-kilobit-per-second modems. It looks like the result will bridge
the technology of rival camps -one led by networking giant 3Com Corp. and the
other by chipmaker Rockwell Semiconductor Systems.
For modem makers, the decision should force them to tweak, though only slightly,
development of their new modems to comply. For those who already own 56K
modems, free software should be available to make sure their devices fit the
standard. And overall, setting a standard should spark more 56K modem sales.
"The real question is: How many people are waiting?" said Dwight Decker,
president of Rockwell Semiconductor.
The two groups have been peddling incompatible 56K modems. These are the next
generation of ever speedier modems, products that send computer language over
analog telephone lines.
ITU, a telecommunications industry group, on Dec. 4 came to a consensus on a
preliminary standard. Modem makers already are devising products that adhere to
the new specifications. The official decision is slated to be made at ITU's
September meeting.
The ITU has had to overcome several hurdles in fixing a standard. 3Com and
Rockwell have fought hard for their respective technologies. And a third party has
claimed that he owns some of the 56K-technology intellectual property.
Still, both sides see the 56K battle as over. "There's a lot of sound and fury over
intellectual property, and there will be another set of discussions. But it won't slow
down acceptance of the standard," said Decker, whose firm is a unit of Seal Beach,
Calif.'s Rockwell International Inc. It is the top producer of the chipsets that go into
modems.
Why is 56K such a big deal? The technology represents a big jump in speed from
what was previously available. Until this year, modems could receive information at
no more than 33.6 kilobits per second.
The speed helps users surf the Web faster. There are a few caveats. Though the
modems are capable of accessing data at 56K, Federal Communication
Commission rules restrict the power output of the modems used by service
providers. As a result, 56K modems download information at no more than 53K.
And, due to noise on the phone line and other factors, the modems typically don't
even get that kind of speed. Still, the 56K devices are far faster than conventional
fare.
Rockwell's version of 56K - called K56flex - is supported by communications
bigwigs such as Lucent Technologies Inc. of Murray Hill, N.J., and Motorola Inc.
of Schaumburg, Ill. San Jose, Calif.- based Diamond Multimedia Systems Inc. and
Boston's Zoom Telephonics Inc. are among the manufacturers selling K56flex
modems.
Santa Clara, Calif.-based 3Com, meanwhile - thanks to its June acquisition of U.S.
Robotics Corp. - sells more modems than anyone else. Its technology is called X2.
Both K56flex and X2 emerged early this year. The two different modems can't
communicate with one another. Each can only dial into Internet service providers
that have the right equipment. U.S. Robotics' retail dominance helped it establish an
early lead. But K56flex modems have been catching up.
The technical specifications reached by the ITU were drawn mainly from the
K56flex technology, although 3Com did make contributions.
Recent ITU meetings had been unproductive, says Rockwell's Decker. But at this
most recent meeting in Orlando, Fla., the two sides came together.
"3Com basically threw in the towel -they just wanted a standard," he said.
Furthermore, he says K56flex offered better performance.
3Com officials, however, don't see the standard as so one-sided. "It was a nice
balance," said Joe Dunsmore, vice president of new business initiatives at 3Com.
"We feel that it blends both approaches."
Dunsmore admits 3Com was eager to establish a set of specifications. "There's
been a dampening of demand without a standard," he said.
That's not to say the modems have been selling poorly. According to PC Data Inc.,
a market research firm in Reston, Va., more than half of U.S. modem revenue in
October came from 56K devices.
But there may be certain groups, such as information-systems managers at large
corporations, who have been awaiting a standard before buying 56K.
"If an I.S. manager is making decisions for thousands of workers, he doesn't want
to touch the technology more than once," Dunsmore said.
There are some consumers who have waited for a resolution to the 56K battle and
may have skipped a few generations of upgrades. "There may be users of 14.4K
modems who will now go up to 56K," said Decker.
For many, upgrading to a new modem standard is easier than before. Most new
modems, including all of 3Com's, are software upgradable. That means consumers
can adjust the specifications of their modem without touching the hardware. They
simply download new software from the Web.
The 56K modems cost a little more than older models. Typically they run around
$170, says Stephen Baker, an analyst at PC Data. The 33.6K variety cost about
$100.
ISPs and corporate networks also will have to upgrade to the new specifications.
But they should be ready by summer, says Decker. "Now, there's no reason not to
buy a modem," he said.
(Copyright Investor's Business Daily, Inc. 1997.
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