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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BroSnack who wrote (6598)	12/11/1997 10:19:00 PM
From: Rational	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9124

brosnack: I agree with your remarks and they are consistent with the CC and my detailed evaluation. Thanks for your appreciation of some of the posts here. All QNTM DDs are also made in Asia and they are actually Asian goods. Thus, the Asian DD makers have no comparative advantage with respect to cheap LABOR as compared to their US counter parts. But, the artificially low cost of capital which allowed Asian DD makers to dump DDs and still make some profits will now be a dream due to their government sponsored banking system's collapse and IMF's high rates. This has brightened the future of US DD makers, as their Asian counter parts get decimated by the weight of capital crunch and high cost of capital. This is a real threat to them. I hesitate to offer investment advice, but I ask every investor to ponder over this threat to Asian DD makers (who were operating on thin air), while the WS is busy decimating tech-stocks (rightly so for many) due to Asian flu. QNTM's stock price should be equal to the value of the brighter future potentials. [In the CC, QNTM hinted that this will perhaps be their worst quarter because they expect their conditions to improve.] I do not think the WS analysts have begun comprehending this yet as they are still busy beating the big companies that sell in Asia. DD makers buy cheap labor in Asia and cheap capital here. QNTM's profits come from US and Eorope. They do not make much profit from DD like other DD makers and so selling or not selling in Asia will have a little effect. It is the Asian DD companies that will be affected by the capital crunch. Observe also that consumers in countries like India and China and other Asian countries will even fast for years to buy a computer for their children. Once a BW article stated that India has 5% of its population with wealth that most Americans cannot dream of. It is a small percent, but it translates to about 45 million families. Most of them are just beginning the taste of high-tech. HDs will be needed every where, increasingly so when Audio-Video Internet services become a reality. QNTM has some products in the pipeline for the Digital TV (correct me if I am wrong). The list is endless. It is possible that most analysts (other than those who have reiterated buy recommendations) know that the high Asian COC and credit crunch will benefit the US DD makers, but are waiting until their principals accumulate enough shares. This is the time to buy QNTM at every drop, in my rational opinion (IMRO). It will be foolish to wait until analysts upgrade this stock. As I had discussed in a different post, MMs can take undue advantage of the panic by artificially manipulating the bids and asks in a situation like today. Sankar [Once I challenged my Broker as to why I did not get the lowest price of the day while my order was on line for days. He said those were "inside trades," i.e., trades among MMs. MMs can make a few trades back and forth to take the price artificially lower in a situation like today and create jitters for fund managers and other impatient short-term traders, with a superficial knowledge of a company and all other global market complications. Prominent research shows that funds on average lag a pure buy&hold strategy in the S&P500 index.] Caution: I am not offering any investment advice. I do not believe that my analysis is affected by my positions. My analysis, however, affects my investment decisions. If my own rational analysis changes as a result of new information, then I alter my investment position. My only incentive to post my analyses here is to offer a balance to a mis-information, when I see them. This said, I ask you to please apply your own judgement and due diligence.

To: BroSnack who wrote (6598)	12/13/1997 5:22:00 PM
From: Alan Hume	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9124

To all on this thread: The "Asian effect" I am confused by all the "bad news" 1)I was in your fine country last week, and read in USA Today that computer sales were up 18% in Asia compared to last year. I presume this is measured in qtys sold rather than $ value. If so, this is only 2% down on the projected w/w annual growth figures. Facet: no cause for alarm IMO. 2)MKE manufactures for QNTM and is Yen based. Yen is aprox 30% down on the $ since January this year. So that must spell good news for QNTM, or??? 3)My understanding from a posting from much earlier this year that QNTM settles with MKE in $ and hence has no hedging risks. Pricing is frequently adjusted. No risks here for QNTM I would think. Can some of you well educated folks out there straighten my thinking out, as I am obviously missing something somewhere? Thanks for your help Alan I am obviously missing out