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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JOHN W. who wrote (3294)	12/12/1997 11:56:00 AM
From: biao luo	Respond to of 6136

lehman.com Headline: Biotechnology: Summary of ASH (NOTE 2 of 2) Author: CA Butler,PhD/E.Ende,MD 1(212)526-4410 Company: Country: IND CUS Industry: BIOTEC Today's Date : 12/10/97 * The following is a day by day summary of the American Society of Hematology (ASH) meeting in San Diego from December 5 through December 9. Please notice that there are two parts to this note. * TXB presented data pertaining to Novastan. * GNE held a meeting to report the latest trials on Rituxan, its new product for Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma. * AMGN reported on several studies (NESP, KGF, MGDF) and held an analyst meeting. * AGPH hosted an analyst meeting on-site to discuss its future prospects (AG3340 and AG2034) and sales trends of Viracept. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ **** This is note 2 of 2 ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) AGPH assembled analysts to help clear up the perception that it is just a one product story. To give more visibility to its cancer programs, management presented phase I data pertaining to its two cancer drugs AG3340 and AG2034. AG3340 is an MMPI (matrix metalloproteinase inhibitor) with its main selective activity against collagenase 3, Gelatinase A and stromemylsin 1, three key MMPs implicated in the development of cancer metastasis. Data was shown that compared AG3340 with marmistat, the other MMPI in clinical trials. AGPH's drug appeared to be significantly more potent against the key MMPs as compared to marmistat. Dosing for AG3340 may allow the drug to be effective against the three key MMPs while minimally affecting human fibroblast collagenase (hfc), an MMP needed for normal joint turnover. According to management, it is hfc related toxicities which may limit the effectiveness of the marmistat program. AGPH expects to begin a phase II study in 1Q98 to test dosing and efficacy. Combination studies are also underway for paclitaxel/carboplatin and AG3340 for non small cell lung cancer and another study for mitoxantrone/prednisone and AG3340 in hormone refractory prostate cancer. Other phase II studies may include glioma, breast and colon cancer. The company also highlighted AG2034, a GARFT inhibitor. The interesting aspect of the drug is its selectivity for p53 negative cells. Since approximately 50% of all cancers and 70% of colon cancers are p53 negative while normal cells are p53 positive, there appears to be promise that AG2034 will kill tumor cells specifically. The program is currently in phase I studies. Management also presented Viracept market trends and potential future trends. Currently, Viracept has 28.4% of the market vs. Crixivan's 40.3%. Interestingly, on a DDD$ basis, Viracept is the market leader with 35% market share. Reasons for future growth expectations were presented and these included: (1) Viracept sales have been strong in the upper decile of physicians who prescribe HIV protease inhibitors but weak in the lower deciles. The company believes that by shifting resources to focus on the lower deciles, it can increase growth of Viracept. (2) Marketing studies indicated that 37% of doctors will prescribe Viracept in their next 10 patients treated for HIV. This suggests possible market share expansion. Importantly, many of the doctors polled were from the lower deciles of treating physicians. (3) BID dosing will be filed at the end of 1998 possibly expanding Viracept's market share as two times per day dosing would provide doctors and patients with an easier dosing schedule. (4) 90% of 100-200 doctors polled at the ICAC meeting believe that Viracept usage will increase over the next year while only 35% thought that the other PIs would increase in use. (5) There is a push towards greater use of PI/PI combinations with Invirase/Norvir currently comprising 80% of PI combination use vs. 17% of Viracept combination therapies. The company hopes to expand this area of potential future growth. In conclusion, AGPH has made more information available with respect to its cancer programs. AG2034 sounds very promising but a gap remains between Viracept and AGPH's next product. The only major potential near-term driver for the stock remains Viracept sales trends. Based on market research performed by the company, expansion of Viracept market share is a distinct possibility but we remain cautious on the stock. ************ THIS NOTE IS CONTINUED FROM NOTE 1 OF 2 ******************* ----------------------------------------------------------------------