To: Larry Brubaker who wrote (1705 ) 12/12/1997 1:30:00 PM From: John Curtis Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Larry: Well, so far my guess'ed drop hasn't occurred. Could we be at or near bottom? Perhaps. It'll take a few more trading sessions to establish that fact, ie recent history and a look at one hell of a horrible chart has shown this rapid plummet to have been broken at intervals by a couple of sessions of sideways movement. So maybe we'll have today and Monday/Tuesday as sideways movement, followed by either an upside, or downside move(I know, I know...DUH!). But since we're practically spitting on the 52 week bottom of $3.93 the odds aren't that great we'll continue moving to the downside. The only qualifier is if there are many folks still out there sweating their margin call window(and of course, barring any further nastiness from Asia & the global market). What I mean by that is, are there folks out there who've had a call that's due soon, ie. Mon/Tues. This is an assumption based on house calls typically being due 3/5 B-days from the date of call and projecting back to the beginning of the most recent portion of this slide. Are they gambling on some sort of a recovery in hopes of minimizing the margin call damage? If there are any significant number of people in that category, I'd expect to see a last, final hit against VLNC during that period. Then she'll probably lay "fallow" for a while then hopefully begin moving back to the upside. It's gotta be all uphill from here if VLNC is still on track with their committed 1st qrtr production target.
