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Strategies & Market Trends : Dino's Bar & Grill -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goose94 who wrote (5843)	3/19/2014 10:02:04 AM
From: Goose94	Respond to of 203020

RBC Note March 2014: “….nickel prices have risen relatively steadily since the widely publicized January 2014 Indonesian nickel export ban, now up 10%. Ultimately, up to 25% of global nickel supply could be eliminated by the ban. Nickel prices have risen 10% since the ban…” “Our base case long term nickel price is $9.50/lb, and we forecast a spike to $15/lb in 2018.”

To: Goose94 who wrote (5843)	3/29/2014 1:09:50 AM
From: Goose94	Respond to of 203020

Indonesia's brand of Resource Nationalism favors Russia At the beginning of 2014, Indonesia followed through on a law first approved 5 years ago to ban the export of all raw materials. A number of emerging natural resource rich nations have enacted similar brands of resource nationalism in recent years. Much like China in the early 2000s, Indonesia has a desire to increase mineral processing as opposed to strict exportation of its ore. The quest for higher paying jobs and the ability to increase the value of exports is what Indonesia believes is at stake. World Bank chief economist Jim Brumby, recently spoke of a rising deficit facing Indonesia. Brumby commented that, “We estimate that there will be a $5.3 billion trade deficit in 2014. For the next three years, until 2017, the total deficit in the trade balance caused by the ban will amount to $12.5 billion.” Reuters has reported that around $500 million worth of monthly metal ore and concentrate exports have ground to a halt in Indonesia due to confusion surrounding the implementation of the January 12th mining law, which includes a mineral ore export ban and a progressive tax on concentrate shipments. Russia comes out on Top Russia had its own reasons to see Indonesia go ahead with the ban. Not only does the ban increase demand for Russian bauxite and nickel, but has opened the door for smelter construction contracts. It appears the posturing has paid off. Indonesia, after showing signs of waffling late last year, has enforced a complete ban on nickel ore and bauxite. Reuters reported on Monday that the halting of $3 billion of annual nickel ore and bauxite exports has already lifted the price of nickel and helped support aluminium, boosting the fortunes of Rusal and Norilsk, *the world's top aluminium and nickel producers, respectively. United Company Rusal and Norilsk Nickel just happen to be Russian companies which now face less competition abroad, higher nickel prices and are perfectly positioned to receive enormous contract deals to build smelters in Indonesia. On top of this, the ban will directly strengthen Russia’s ties with South-East Asia's largest economy. Reuters reported that CEO of Rusal repeatedly traveled to Jakarta last year. He appears to have achieved his goal. Indonesia's Industry Minister, Mohamad Hidayat, told Reuters that, “They made the export ban policy the main requirement for them to invest here.”*