To: Zebra 365 who wrote (3461 ) 12/12/1997 12:18:00 AM From: Andreas Samson Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23519
A few CC notes: The questioning by analysts was very aggressive and the prosecutorial overtones were partly fueled by resentment, but also by fear. The fear being management has used product line transition as a cover story to mask a deeper slackening of demand. One analyst (Paramount, I think) demanded to know, under threat of shareholder lawsuit, if 45 day inventory buildup was the result of decreased demand. Leland was adamant this was not the case. Part of the alarm, I think, stemmed from the increase in warehouse inventory from 30-45 days, coupled with decreased production from 800K to 600K units/montly. However the inventory numbers are from September, reflecting summer production rate of 800K, not the present rate of 600K. The clear expectation of management is for increased sales in the coming two quarters and the present slowdown is in production line transition to accomodate greater output. Much of this delay is in the way of a 'learning curve' for new employees to manufacture product under exacting specifications in FDA-approved lab conditions. They made no specific projections on sales. They will be able to return to 800K output level by mid-January. The direct to consumer ad campaign (the first for MUSE) with Gavin McLeod will begin Feb 1. -10K new scripts per week -refill rate increased to 30% -500,000 patients worldwide Regulatory approval for the new plant is the last stepping stone, to hear them tell it, to worldwide expansion. My thoughts: the handling of the transition, the press release in particular, was bungled mightily by management. There appears to be some hubris involved. I don't think management realized how pissed off everyone was until about halfway into the conference when Paramount and a row of guys from Paine Webber started to pickaxe away at their explanations. Given the explansion of production facilities, logic would dictate that demand has not slackened and MUSE is still in the build-out of its introduction to users worldwide. The dark cloud on the horizon still appears to be Viagra. The thinking at Vivus is that Viagra will help spur further sales of MUSE by introducing more ED patients to treatement at earlier stages of their difficulties (i.e, milder cases will graduate from Viagra to MUSE as their ED condition worsens). In any case, V and M have not been field-tested head-to-head, and wont be for some time, although the thinking from a marketing perspective is that two drugs are attacking ED from opposite ends of the spectrum, and thus only indirectly conflicting with one another. The sooner Viagra is on the market, the better, says Leland. On the whole, I feel largely reassured by the CC...If I got any of this wrong, I welcome all feedback.