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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Newman who wrote (4299)	12/11/1997 11:46:00 PM
From: LastShadow	Respond to of 120523

Responses: First the stocks, then the intraday charting... CUBE & PAIR - neither look to have hit bottom yet, although both may be close AMMB - I posted this Tuesday I think, and saw it drop and then bounce up from there. Both the Chaikin Osc and William's Accumulation are looking better, but the Stochastics aren't where I would get interested yet. WDC - the Chaikin is almost up to zero, and I watch it intraday for sign of a reversal, but haven't seen it yet. Some of their competition released devastatingly fast and large products, so they need to announce something soon. CYMI - I don't follow CPQ I am looking to enter Friday. Its gone through three 10 day cycles to lows around 57-58. Today's dump left it at 56 - the linear regression I ran through the end of July tonight says it could go back to 68.5 on a fourth wave. My guess, since it would be a fourth wave on further negative penetration would be 65 max. Tomorrow I will see if its bottomed - if so, it a buy. Intraday Trendlines - now there is a black art...The trick to doing this well (read that profitably) is in assessing the sell volumes. Its easy enough to discount a sell at a larger volume if you have improving lower resistance for the buys, but riskier if the tick is swinging wildly or giving false signals (lower resistance improves, but then drops back on small volume sells). The only way I know to be comfortable with lining through sells that fall below the trend is to pick higher volume stocks, or very thinly traded stocks. The range between those two groups isn't arbitrary, but relative to the average volume. the reason is that if there are several mm's making a market in the stock, one of them could off a large block and go back to trading whatever is more pressing to him. If several start selling at lower ask, or larger bid/ask spread, then you've lost any consolidation, trend or pennant pattern to go by. My advice on uptrends (the converse holds to connect the highs for downtrends) would be to NOT draw the lines as you do for end of day, but pass through small sells, connect to the bottoms on multiple larger sells, and be aware of the historical pattern. Look at the 5 minute chart action for a thinly traded stock to see how the primary market maker plays them. Check the 5 minute charts on the high volume tickers to see how easily the collective mind of the mm's are swayed by single large sells. The last thing to remember is that there are trading times to look for those sells that can help you weight their importance. Funds, large Brokerages and financial institutions have an approval process they adhere to. You will see a huge difference in the number of large trades (for Tech Stocks for example) at say 9:45-10:30, just before lunch, and then 1:15-2:00 and finally at 3:15 or so until close. It takes a little time to get your boss to agree to a large sell (less so for a large buy - thats been approved earlier). If a large sell occurs outside of those times, watch the trading at those intervals to see who else jumped in with the same idea. Looking at the charts will tell you when those times are, and the likelihood it will affect the pricing for your speciofic stock and sub-industry. lastshadow