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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Grenier who wrote (6617)	12/12/1997 10:59:00 AM
From: Thomas Haegin	Respond to of 9124

Re: Laughing... Richard, well, I did not say we always make money <still g>, and above all, we still manage to laugh about ourselves under dire circumstances. That's good, too :) I happen to own WDC at $21+, not exactly a brilliant entry either. If I wanted to be really rude now, I'd have to say that maybe SI is not the right place for you gain investment insight. But I assume you do not mean it as seriously as it sounds. ------------------ The thing with stocks, IMHO, is that their prices should anticipate future developments and events, but rarely do so in reality. Most often stocks react to some "surprising" news. Why is everybody surprised? Would a sudden increase in U.S. inflation really be a surprise? As I see it, not really. Because the only constant in everything is that things change. Anybody betting against this is at odds with all human history. Therefore, while I cannot say when it will happen, I am certain that it will happen eventually. Anticyclical behaviour is against true human nature. This is why we have cyclicality (eh... hu??). Yes I do think so. It's the same with countries, profits, outlooks, companies, etc: Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia keep going down the drain for over a year now, when, among other things, the DD sector was still doing fine. Nobody seemed to bother. Suddenly everyone switches from totally ignoring to predicting the end of Asia. Probably the truth lies somewhere in between. There is a very good article (JMO) in the WSJ today about the Asian events of late. I just want to submit for consideration (figure from the article) that China was an importer of only about $2bn of tech goods from the U.S. That's kind of nothing, not even $2 per head! As I read the article (and collect other newsclips), I get the impression that the situation is pretty unclear and requires to look at each individual company. WS usually paints with a broad brush, almost nobody likes to dig into things. ORCL is bad, gosh, every other must be bad, too. WDC, SEG is bad. Gee, gotta get out of QNTM as well. As investor/analyst not taking the pain of figuring out what the specific merits of QNTM are vs. their peers only create an opportunity for the few folks who do undertake to dig deeper and see, for example, that QNTM is technologically ahead now in MR, and, unless the end of DD as we know it is upon us, it should comeback nicely at some point because the big trend in favour of DD is there anyway. ORCL: To put a stock on "Hold" after it has announced a shortfall and has declined by 35% or more percent, is not a good call. One should have done so when they were still at 35+, looking if nothing else at the ridiculous valuation. A "Buy" on CA at 50? Stupid! CA is great, but at 50 it's bloody expensive. I'd rate them "Hold 50%" if I had them and "Avoid" if I didn't, but certainly not "Buy". WDC (I'm more familiar with that) at 16 a Sell? Maybe short-term in a panic, but longer term probably jat least as good as buying CA at 50. But I'd say the risk for future dissapointments is lower in WDC than CA. So I'd go for WDC, which I actually did, but stupidly so without getting the mood, ideas and feedbacks from the insightful contributors on the WDC and DD thread before jumping. I've just rumbled along here in rather chaotic fashion, but I would hope that some useful message gets across. No offense taken, Richard, and if you happen to sit at a bigger loss than I am right know, I did not intend to inflict more pain to you or others in your position. Thomas