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To: ZOID who wrote (3703)12/12/1997 12:17:00 AM
From: Jeffrey S. Mitchell  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10786
 
I don't believe analysts can meaningfully work with that wide of a forecast.

This is out of my area of expertise, but I am under the impression that analysts are provided access by the company to all sorts of non-public material with which to make an independent prediction.

But your point is well taken that ALYD's 3Q financial prediction was way off the mark and thus they are under the microscope for 4Q. What makes me optimistic is that CEO Gruder's letter says that all the packaging problems have been solved and that code is flowing on schedule.

One other note: keep in mind when forecasting Y2K revenue that many early Y2K projects are back-loaded, meaning the majority (if not all) of the revenue is generated at the completion of the project. I doubt ALYD's current contracts are like that, but I would guess they have a bunch of those from earlier in the year.

- Jeff