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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FJB who wrote (11430)	12/12/1997 1:29:00 AM
From: Mr. Aloha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

I like this comment..... Installs of our lasers on steppers or scanners at chipmakers has increased significantly. There are more of those installs at chipmakers in the third quarter than in the first six months of the year. Our direct customers - stepper manufacturers - continue to predict to us that there will be increases in install rates of significance for the fourth quarter, and in the first quarter of 1998. ------------------------- We'll see..... I like this list from an AMAT poster... Earlier, I posted a list of how you can lose money in AMAT. I'll re-post my revised list: 1. play complicated short-term option games. 2. get margined too much. 3. following the trend. 4. following the analysts. 5. not sticking to your long-term plan. 6. guessing and hoping. 7. thinking you know more than you really do. 8) Selling in a panic when this volatile stock drops (for less than what you paid) Aloha

To: FJB who wrote (11430)	12/12/1997 9:19:00 AM
From: Yakov Lurye	Respond to of 25960

Bob, good point - keep in mind though that old i-line tools have lower throughput than newer DUV tools. Nikon's & Canon's new DUV tools increase throughput by 30-35%, so to utilize them fully, i-line equipment count will have to be augmented even if old i-line equipment is reused. The capacity matching through the process could be done by making some older i-line tools work in parallel on the same step. A very simplistic example for a hypothetical 80WPH IC line with 20 i-line and 5 DUV steppers (4:1) ratio. If the manufacturer already has 20 i-line steppers with 35% lower 50 WPH capacity, he could use two old steppers per process step, and will have to buy 10 more i-line and 5 DUV 80WPH steppers. This is 2:1 ratio for new purchases. Of course, with new equipment orders a lot depends on IC manufacturer's strategic plans and their ability to reduce the number of steps in production process through redesigning the chip (putting more circuits on each layer, etc) - these factors should boost DUV/i-line sales ratio. Because of the general drive to improve productivity, I am not worried about manufacturers not buying DUV tools. The question is rather what fraction of new steppers shipped will be DUV, especially in the earlier stages of the game. 2:1 ratio corresponds to DUV accounting for 35% of commercial stepper/scanner shipments, and IMHO should be considered satisfactory as it keeps CYMER on track for 1998. Regards, Y.