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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Aloha who wrote (11431)	12/12/1997 1:37:00 AM
From: Mr. Aloha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

This from the AMAT thread was interesting.... From the Smart Money article - Most vulnerable to such a slowdown in spending is Applied Materials, which relies on South Korea for 8% of its revenues Let's do some math here. AMAT gets approx 45% of it's revs from SEA and 8% from Korea in particular. Let's assume Korea pushes out all orders until FY99. In addition, let's say that the rest of asia pushes out 50% of their orders until FY99. Europe and North America remained unchanged for this example. Using these VERY BLEAK estimates, revs for FY98 would fall short of expectations by 25.5%, well below the 50% decline in price we have seen over the past two months. In addition, some of this rev. shortfall could be made up with improved margins. My guess(I'm not going out on a limb here) is that Korea will not push out all orders nor will the rest of asia have a 50% push-out rate. At any rate, the selloff we have witnessed was not warranted to the extent it sold off IMO. And I am basing this on numbers I have enumerated, not on how I "feel" about AMAT. Oliver Wendell Holmes in one of his rulings once said that free speech does not extend to shouting fire in a crowded theater. My advice is to never go to the theater with a securities analyst. ;-) Aloha

To: Mr. Aloha who wrote (11431)	12/12/1997 1:40:00 AM
From: Mr. Aloha	Respond to of 25960

KLA-Tencor Announces Record Multiple Thin Film Measurement Tool.. A total of 19 systems were ordered, the largest single thin film measurement tool order for KLA-Tencor to date. biz.yahoo.com Aloha