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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (8216)	12/12/1997 4:36:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 9285

>>Quite frankly, I think the Y2K story is over, and the stocks will just drift slowly down from here<< Agree 100% with you. With my y2k shorts, I will act according to my broken stock strategy outlined in my previous post. IMO they all still have quite a way to go [down!]. Hopefully our big picture is right. I am always a bit skeptical about my beliefs/convictions. In this business you need to be humble and flexible in order to realize change in fundamentals. Pancho

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (8216)	12/13/1997 2:39:00 AM
From: Investor-ex!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Bill, Once they realize that the world is not coming to an end on Jan. 1 2000, I predict they will come up with some variant of the "cascading failure scenario" which will cause computers to crash in later years due to "delayed" millenirm bugs. As a bit of esoterica, this is actually true, but the effects won't be noticed until around 2050-2070 or so, if such old code (yikes!) is still running. As a programmer, I see lots of code that determines which century it is from a two digit year by which side of 70, for example, that the two digits of the year fall. If the user input 82, it must be 1982. If the user input 68, it must be 2068. Though not Y2K "compliant" in any strict sense of the word, this code will continue to work just fine until 2071. You are right that there will be no immediate cascade effect. If the funky stuff out there makes it past 1999, it should run OK for several decades. If this becomes the new doom story, wait till that round of hype has about topped out and short again. :-D