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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bill Wexler who wrote (8217)12/12/1997 4:32:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa  Respond to of 9285
 
Bill>>watching the stock fly back up on a squeeze or some hype and then kicking yourself for not covering and reshorting.<<

I my be mistaken but IMO the best way to play stocks with broken fundamentals is to do it Asensio's style. You see the big [negative] picture for the stock and then "short and hold", and wait while you see the story unfold [this is who Asensio does it, he doesn't trade much]. Of course you will not get 100% success but [if you are good] the successes should more than make up for the misses. It would be very easy to make a zillion dollars if we new random prices movements in advance and could trade in and out these puppies on a daily basis.

Shorting high flyers, YHOO AOL, IMO is a bit different. However, you still need to keep at least a medium term view. IMO any one who shorts with a time frame of days or even weeks will not do as well as someone with a more flexible time horizon. It is precisely this flexibility that makes shorting the stock more attractive to me vis-a-vis playing options. If the investor is not planning to take advantage of this flexibility due to his/her anxious ways, then IMO he/she should not be shorting the stock but playing options.

Now with high flyers I never as well as with broken stocks. I usually sell short before momentum dies, and even though I have never covered at a lost [not even INTC or WLA!] once I get back into positive territory I get scared to give the profit away and usually cover way too soon.

Pancho

PS: I am not quite sure this post does anything beyond venting my frustrations. IMO I may be a bit more patient than the average shorter at SI. This may be a result of using shorting as a hedge (i.e, backed by long positions. I never short naked. i.e. back up the shorts with just cash as this is going against the current - i.e., the market's 10%/year annual rate of increase)